In a market evaluation despatched to Rigzone on Wednesday, Konstantinos Chrysikos, Head of Buyer Relationship Administration at Kudotrade, highlighted that “oil costs staged a rebound right now, recovering from their latest five-month lows”.
“The market reacted positively to the information that the U.S. Division of Power is in search of to buy roughly a million barrels for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR),” Chrysikos mentioned within the evaluation.
“Moreover, the potential for a U.S.-India deal which will reduce Russian flows and tighten the market lifted costs. Hopes concerning U.S.-China commerce enchancment may help demand expectations and assist enhance the outlook,” he added.
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Chrysikos went on to state within the evaluation, nevertheless, that “the market may face a persistent international provide surplus, pushed by record-high U.S. manufacturing and OPEC+’s dedication to deliberate output will increase”.
“These components, mixed with forecasts from main businesses pointing to continued stock builds and slower international demand progress, may cap important value positive aspects,” Chrysikos warned.
In a separate market evaluation despatched to Rigzone right now, Rania Gule, a senior market analyst at XS.com-MENA, identified that, “traditionally, the commerce relationship between the U.S. and China has had a direct influence on oil value dynamics, as the 2 economies collectively account for greater than one-third of world vitality consumption”.
“Consequently, any signal of easing or escalation of their commerce dispute instantly reverberates by markets,” Gule added.
In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report despatched to Rigzone by the SEB crew on Wednesday, SEB Commodities Analyst Ole R. Hvalbye famous that, “up to now this week, Brent crude has climbed by roughly $2.5 per barrel from Monday’s low of $60.07, the weakest print since early Might”.
“The slight restoration in Brent this week means that the latest downward momentum has eased, although the market stays extremely delicate to short-term headlines,” Hvalbye mentioned within the report.
“Commerce diplomacy and geopolitical threat proceed to dominate sentiment, whereas underlying fundamentals nonetheless level to a market in surplus heading into winter, with the trajectory now closely depending on OPEC+ technique going ahead,” he added.
In a report despatched to Rigzone by the Normal Chartered crew right now, which was dated October 21, Normal Chartered Financial institution Power Analysis Head Emily Ashford warned that crude oil sentiment is at present “overwhelmingly adverse”.
“We anticipate near-term weak point pushed by perceived market oversupply and international demand indicators,” Ashford mentioned within the report.
“Low costs then begin to quash U.S. shale output progress, and if OPEC+’s return of barrels is sustained, the market will spotlight tightness and geographic focus of spare capability, which we anticipate to be supportive within the medium time period,” Ashford added.
The Normal Chartered Financial institution Power Analysis Head famous in that report that Brent’s weak point had “continued for an additional week”.
“Brent mix for December supply settled at $61.01 per barrel (bbl) on 20 October; a fall of $2.31/bbl w/w and the bottom settlement value for twenty-four weeks,” Ashford mentioned.
“SCORPIO, our machine studying mannequin, was directionally right in its forecast, however underestimated the size of the w/w lower when it anticipated $0.40/bbl w/w fall to $62.92/bbl settlement on 20 October,” Ashford added.
“Costs fell to an intra-day low of $60.07/bbl on 20 October, with $60/bbl representing an vital psychological stage,” Ashford continued.
Ashford went on to state in that report that a number of technical alerts are pointing in direction of costs being in oversold territory.
“The relative power index fell to 31.85 on 16 October and is simply barely larger now (35.08 on the time of writing),” Ashford famous within the report.
The Normal Chartered Financial institution consultant highlighted within the report that Normal Chartered just lately adjusted its value forecasts for Brent, WTI, and Dubai crude, “triggered by the numerous rotation within the ahead curve seen during the last 12 months”.
“The curve is now in contango from early-2026 onwards,” Ashford warned.
“For Brent, the 2025 common rises to $68.50/bbl (from $61/bbl), 2026 decreases to $63.50/bbl (from $78/bbl), and 2027 falls to $67/bbl (from $83/bbl). These value changes replicate near-term weak point, adopted by a long-term regular however gradual improve,” Ashford added.
“We see near-term softness, mirrored in overwhelmingly adverse sentiment, pushed by commerce warfare and tariff uncertainty and oversupply fears. Low costs then begin to quash U.S. shale output progress, and if OPEC+’s return of barrels is sustained, this can spotlight tightness and the geographic focus of spare capability, which ought to be supportive within the medium time period,” Ashford continued.
To contact the writer, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
