Norway produced 241.3 million cubic meters (8.5 billion cubic ft) per day of pure gasoline in September, 30.9 % decrease than the prior month however 19.9 % larger than the identical interval final yr, official information has proven.
The Nordic nation’s month-to-month gasoline output in 2024 has grown persistently year-on-year.
Norway, a key gasoline provider for Europe, bought 7.2 billion cubic meters (254.3 billion cubic ft) September, down by 3.6 billion cubic meters (127.1 billion cubic ft) from August.
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It produced 1.6 million barrels a day (MMbd) of oil September, down by 10.6 % in opposition to the prior month and 5.1 % in opposition to the identical interval 2023, although September’s oil manufacturing beat the official forecast by 1.5 %.
Norway averaged 110,000 barrels per day in pure gasoline liquids manufacturing and 19,000 barrels per day in condensate manufacturing September.
In keeping with the most recent quarterly gasoline market report of the European Fee, Norway remained the European Union’s greatest supply of pipeline gasoline within the first quarter of 2024, accounting for 54 % or 22 billion cubic meters (776.9 billion cubic ft). Norway’s total share of EU gasoline imports, together with liquefied pure gasoline, within the first three months of 2024 was 34 %, forward of the USA (20 %) and Russia (19 %).
Norway has overtaken Russia because the EU’s prime gasoline provider for the reason that latter half of 2022, months after Russia invaded Ukraine, based on Fee information.
Sanctioning Growth
The scarcity of fossil fuels in Europe following the struggle has seen a sanctioning increase for initiatives on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). “When applied in June 2020, Norway’s momentary tax reduction system sparked an all-time excessive in undertaking sanctioning on the NCS – with a whopping 29 initiatives having their improvement plans (PDOs) delivered between June 2020 and the tip of 2022”, Rystad Power stated in an evaluation printed August 2024. “The portfolio contains key schemes like Aker BP’s Yggdrasil hub and Valhall PWP-Fenris improvement, alongside an unlimited portfolio of smaller-scale subsea tiebacks”.
Norway applied a petroleum tax reform in 2020 to assist encourage funding amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Rystad projected offshore oil and gasoline investments in Norway in 2024 to develop 17 % year-on-year to a document NOK 254 billion ($23.2 billion). That may put the NCS forward of established offshore areas together with Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico, based on Rystad.
“Notably, 38 % of this yr’s expenditure (NOK 98 billion) is projected to stem from the momentary tax reduction system, illustrating the regime’s highly effective impression”, it stated.
Rystad upstream analyst Mathias Schioldborg stated, “Spending will stay elevated because the sanctioned initiatives are constructed out, with solely a slight decline anticipated to NOK 253 billion [23.1 billion] in 2026 and NOK 246 billion [$22.5 billion] in 2027”.
After 2027, the decline is predicted to change into steeper relying on “foreign money actions, short-term sanctioning ranges, trade insurance policies set by Norway’s authorities and the way the European demand outlook develops”, Rystad stated.
Accelerated Manufacturing Decline
Nonetheless, based on the nation’s upstream regulator, the anticipated downward course of Norway’s oil and gasoline manufacturing could start as early as subsequent yr.
Norway holds about 7.1 billion cubic meters of oil equal (Bcmoe) — 250.7 billion cubic ft of oil equal (Bcfoe) — remaining assets in its continental shelf. That features 3.5 Bcmoe (123.6 Bcfoe) of undiscovered assets, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate, which oversees vitality improvement within the nation’s waters, stated in its annual Useful resource Report launched August.
The regulator outlined three situations on the destiny of Norway’s hydrocarbon trade from 2025 to 2050, all of which see a decline in manufacturing and all consistent with the Paris local weather pact based on the Directorate. What situation will play out is dependent upon Norway’s means to maintain funding vis-a-vis the value and demand panorama, the quantity of recent exploration exercise and the tempo of improvement options together with expertise wanted to entry tough frontiers, based on the report.
Within the “base situation”, liquids and gasoline manufacturing rises to 243 million cubic meters of oil equal (MMcmoe), or 8.5 Bcfoe, in 2025 then steadily falls to about 83 MMcmoe (2.9 Bcfoe) in 2050, or by about two-thirds. This could be pushed by a decline in bigger fields.
“Exploration exercise will stay on the present degree over the subsequent few years and can then decline”, the Directorate stated of the bottom situation. Right here, the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea drive exploration as firms are inspired by present infrastructure in these areas, which shorten lead instances from discovery to manufacturing and reduce prices.
Nonetheless, within the situation, discoveries in these acquainted areas are “persistently small”.
Nonetheless, “The petroleum sector will account for substantial worth creation over the subsequent 25 years and can stay essential for presidency revenues”.
Within the “low situation”, manufacturing begins reducing from 2025 to almost zero come 2050. Exploration additionally stagnates after staying on the present degree within the subsequent few years. Wells drilled within the Barents Sea flip up dry or yield small discoveries. Corporations subsequently keep within the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea, the place present services incentivize additional exploration. Nonetheless, discoveries in these components below the low situation are small too.
“Unit prices on fields will rise quickly, as new discoveries by means of exploration is not going to contribute to considerably elevated manufacturing on host fields… This can result in many fields shutting down early”, the Directorate stated.
In observe, the low situation interprets to “an entire dismantling of the petroleum trade main as much as 2050”, it stated.
Nonetheless, the company added that “regardless of the substantial drop in manufacturing, this situation will contribute to important worth creation over the subsequent 25 years”.
Within the “excessive situation”, manufacturing stays at a “excessive degree” over the subsequent decade earlier than steadily falling to 120 MMcmoe (4.2 Bcmoe) in 2050. “The NCS [Norwegian continental shelf] is a beautiful petroleum province, and the authorities and the trade each assist preserve exploration exercise, expertise improvement and worthwhile petroleum manufacturing”, the Directorate stated.
Not solely areas near infrastructure but in addition frontier ones see “excessive exploration exercise”. The trade comes up with new expertise to penetrate tight reservoirs and the Barents Sea yields main gasoline discoveries, encouraging additional exploration.
The Directorate known as for a brand new pipeline to help elevated gasoline manufacturing within the Barents Sea.
Nonetheless ‘Aggressive’
What the Directorate assured is that Norway’s waters stay a “aggressive” oil and gasoline area because of huge remaining assets, developed infrastructure and supportive authorities insurance policies.
Additionally serving to Norway’s trigger is Europe’s vitality shift away from Russia, in addition to the necessity of economies throughout the globe for fossil fuels even past 2050, based on the Directorate.
To contact the creator, electronic mail jov.onsat@rigzone.com
