In a report despatched to Rigzone late Tuesday by Normal Chartered Financial institution Commodities Analysis Head Paul Horsnell, analysts on the firm, together with Horsnell, highlighted that, of their view, “market confusion concerning the potential impact of assorted U.S. power and international insurance policies is appearing as a extreme drag on costs”.
“Bearish sentiment within the oil markets has continued for an additional week, with the acute normal risk-off temper – notably within the international fairness markets – leading to front-month Brent settling at a six-month settlement low of $69.28 per barrel on 10 March,” the analysts mentioned within the report, stating that “it reached a three-year low of $68.33 per barrel intra-day on 5 March”.
“All the first 15 months on the Brent curve fell week on week by greater than $2 per barrel; the week on week fall for the entrance month was $2.34 per barrel and the biggest transfer was the $2.45 per barrel week on week fall within the August 2025 contract,” the analysts famous within the report.
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“Additional alongside the curve, Brent for supply 5 years out fell by $0.63 per barrel to a 20-month low of $66.37 per barrel,” they went on to state.
“Of the 35 buying and selling days since President Trump’s inauguration, Brent has settled decrease on 20 and has recorded a decrease intra-high on 25 days, with the cumulative value fall reaching $10.01 per barrel at settlement on 10 March,” the analysts continued.
Within the report, the analysts went on to notice that the value undershoot has been exacerbated by an additional deterioration in speculative positioning.
“Our mixed crude oil money-manager positioning index has fallen by 6.9 week on week to -35.0, and the equal indices have fallen week on week for all the primary merchandise (heating oil, gasoil, and gasoline blendstock),” they mentioned.
Whereas the steadiness of speculative positioning has shifted in the direction of the brief facet, each shorts and longs have been decreasing threat, the Normal Chartered analysts famous within the report.
“Over the previous week longs throughout the 4 primary Brent and WTI contracts fell 44.7 million barrels (mb) to a 12-week low of 467.5 mb, whereas shorts fell by 21.8 mb from the earlier week’s six-month excessive to 249.8mb,” they added.
Rigzone has contacted the Trump transition workforce and the White Home for touch upon Normal Chartered Financial institution’s report. On the time of writing, neither have responded to Rigzone.
In an oil and gasoline report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie workforce on Tuesday, Macquarie strategists mentioned they’ve been largely bearish oil for the previous a number of months, including that, “given the very fact our provide/demand balances for 2025 stay fairly lengthy at ~ a million barrels per day, we stay bearish”.
“Our lengthy balances are pushed by wholesome provide progress throughout NOPEC and first rate however nonetheless under pattern demand progress of 1.2 million barrels per day,” they added.
“That mentioned, perceptions of market tightness could diverge extensively. For bitter crude patrons, the market seem[s] exceptionally tight; mild candy crude patrons really feel effectively provided,” they continued.
“Not like our earlier view nonetheless, we imagine draw back potential is now extra restricted given the massive sell-off which has put crude nearer to our excessive $60 value targets for 1H25,” the Macquarie strategists went on to state.
In a analysis observe despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis workforce on Monday, analysts at J.P. Morgan mentioned the estimated worth of open curiosity throughout power markets declined by an additional $4 billion week on week regardless of over $8 billion of weekly inflows.
“The close to 4 p.c week on week decline in crude oil benchmark costs outstripped contract inflows of close to $2.8 billion week on week, dragging the estimated worth of open curiosity down by $8.6 billion week on week,” the J.P. Morgan analysts added.
“In the meantime throughout pure gasoline markets, contract-based inflows bounced to a four-week excessive of close to $5 billion week on week, driving up the estimated open curiosity worth to $8.4 billion week on week,” they continued.
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