In an oil and fuel report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie workforce this week, Macquarie strategists revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories can be up 3.0 million barrels for the week ending January 10.
“This compares to our early search for the week which anticipated a 4.3 million barrel construct, and a 1.0 million barrel draw realized for the week ending January 3,” the strategists mentioned within the report.
“On the product facet of the ledger, in combination, our expectations for an additional massive construct are little modified from our early view,” the strategists added.
Within the report, the Macquarie strategists famous that, “for this week’s crude steadiness, from refineries”, they “mannequin crude runs decrease (-0.4 million barrels per day)”.
“Amongst web imports, we mannequin a modest lower, with exports (-0.2 million barrels per day) and imports decrease (-0.3 million barrels per day) on a nominal foundation,” they added.
The strategists warned within the report that timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility on this week’s crude steadiness.
“Likewise, the shadow of potential year-end/timing results within the prior week’s steadiness might insert extra volatility on this week’s stats,” the strategists mentioned within the report.
“From implied home provide (prod.+adj.+transfers), we search for a reasonable enhance (+0.4 million barrels per day) following a smooth print final week, though right here too we notice potential volatility as a consequence of winter climate,” they famous.
“Rounding out the image, we anticipate one other small enhance in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stock (+0.5 million barrels) on the week,” they went on to state.
The Macquarie strategists additionally famous within the report that, “amongst merchandise”, they “search for one other massive gasoline construct (+4.4 million barrels), with distillate (+1.3 million barrels) and jet shares (+1.9 million barrels) additionally larger”.
“We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~13.7 million barrels per day for the week ending January 10,” they mentioned within the report.
In an oil and fuel report despatched to Rigzone late Thursday by the Macquarie workforce, Macquarie strategists outlined that they noticed “potential for a significant U.S. crude construct” within the U.S. Power Info Administration’s (EIA) subsequent weekly petroleum standing report.
“Waiting for subsequent week’s launch, we but once more see potential for a significant U.S. crude construct (+4.3 million barrels), with runs reasonably decrease (-0.3 million barrels per day), nominal implied provide bouncing again (+0.4 million barrels per day) regardless of potential freeze impacts, web imports barely larger (+0.1 million barrels per day), and a bigger enhance in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stock (+0.9 million barrels) on the week,” the Macquarie strategists mentioned in that oil and fuel report.
The EIA’s subsequent weekly petroleum standing report is scheduled to be launched later immediately and can embrace knowledge for the week ending January 10. The EIA’s most up-to-date weekly petroleum standing report on the time of writing was launched on January 8 and included knowledge for the week ending January 3.
U.S. business crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, decreased by 1.0 million barrels from the week ending December 27 to the week ending January 3, the EIA highlighted in its January 8 weekly petroleum standing report.
Crude oil shares, excluding the SPR, stood at 414.6 million barrels on January 3, 415.6 million barrels on December 27, and 432.4 million barrels on January 5, 2024, that report revealed. Crude oil within the SPR got here in at 393.8 million barrels on January 3, 393.6 million barrels on December 27, and 355.0 million barrels on January 5, 2024, the report confirmed.
Complete petroleum shares – together with crude oil, whole motor gasoline, gas ethanol, kerosene sort jet gas, distillate gas oil, residual gas oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.628 billion barrels on January 3, the report revealed. This determine was up 5.3 million barrels week on week and up 13.0 million barrels yr on yr, the report outlined.
In a Stratas Advisors report despatched to Rigzone by the Stratas workforce late Monday, the corporate famous that “fundamentals … supplied some help for crude costs, with crude inventories within the U.S. being drawn down in latest weeks”.
In a notice despatched to Rigzone on January 10 by the Saxo Financial institution workforce, Ole S. Hansen, Saxo Financial institution’s Head of Commodity Technique, highlighted that “U.S. inventories at Cushing, the supply hub for WTI futures, have dropped to an 11-year low, nearing the minimal working degree of 20 million barrels”.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com