In a report despatched to Rigzone this week, Macquarie strategists revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will rise by 4.0 million barrels for the week ending March 1.
“This compares to a 4.2 million barrel construct for the week ending February 23, with the whole U.S. crude stability once more realizing tighter than we had anticipated,” the strategists famous within the report.
“For this week, from refineries, we mannequin a extra significant enhance in crude runs (+0.5 million barrels per day), following a smooth print final week,” they added.
“Amongst web imports, we once more anticipate a modest nominal enhance, with exports decrease on a nominal foundation (-0.4 million barrels per day) and imports additionally down barely (-0.1 million barrels per day),” the strategists continued.
Within the report, the strategists warned that timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility on this week’s crude stability.
“From implied home provide (prod.+adj.+transfers), we search for a modest nominal enhance (+0.2 million barrels per day),” the strategists famous within the report.
“Rounding out the image, we anticipate an identical enhance in SPR stock (+0.7 million barrels) on the week,” they added.
The analysts additionally highlighted within the report that, at Cushing, their refinery/pipeline mannequin is asking for a construct of 1.3 million barrels this week.
“Amongst merchandise, we search for attracts led by gasoline (-3.1 million barrels) and distillate (-2.2 million barrels), with jet shares barely decrease (-0.3 million barrels),” they added.
“We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~13.9 million barrels per day for the week ending March 1,” the strategists went on to notice.
Based on the U.S. Vitality Info Administration’s (EIA) newest weekly petroleum standing report, which was launched on February 28 and included information for the week ending February 23, U.S. industrial crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, elevated by 4.2 million barrels from the week ending February 16 to the week ending February 23.
Crude oil shares within the U.S., not together with the SPR, stood at 447.2 million barrels on February 23, 443.0 million barrels on February 16, and 480.2 million barrels on February 24, 2023, the report revealed. Crude oil within the SPR got here in at 360.3 million barrels on February 23, 359.5 million barrels on February 16, and 371.6 million barrels on February 24, 2023, the report confirmed.
Complete petroleum shares within the U.S. – together with crude oil, complete motor gasoline, gasoline ethanol, kerosene sort jet gasoline, distillate gasoline oil, residual gasoline oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.588 billion barrels on February 23, the report outlined. This determine was down 2.4 million barrels week on week and down 41.5 million barrels yr on yr, the report revealed.
In an oil and fuel report despatched to Rigzone previous to the EIA’s weekly petroleum standing report revealed on February 28, Macquarie strategists revealed that they had been forecasting that U.S. crude inventories could be up by 5.6 million barrels for the week ending February 23. The strategists highlighted in that report that they anticipated a 0.8 million barrel SPR stock enhance week on week.
In a report despatched to Rigzone on February 20, Macquarie strategists revealed that they had been forecasting that U.S. crude inventories could be up by 8.4 million barrels for the week ending February 16.
In its weekly petroleum standing report launched on February 22, the EIA revealed that U.S. industrial crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, elevated by 3.5 million barrels from the week ending February 9 to the week ending February 16.
The nation’s crude oil shares, not together with the SPR, stood at 443.0 million barrels on February 16, 439.5 million barrels on February 9, and 479.0 million barrels on February 17, 2023, that report confirmed. Crude oil within the SPR stood at 359.5 million barrels on February 16, 358.8 million barrels on February 9, and 371.6 million barrels on February 17, 2023, in accordance with the report.
Complete petroleum shares within the U.S. – together with crude oil, complete motor gasoline, gasoline ethanol, kerosene sort jet gasoline, distillate gasoline oil, residual gasoline oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.591 billion barrels on February 16, that report outlined. This determine was unchanged week on week and down 42.1 million barrels yr on yr, that report revealed.
The EIA’s subsequent weekly petroleum standing report is at present scheduled to be launched on March 6. It should embrace information for the week ending March 1.
To contact the writer, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com