In an oil and gasoline report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie workforce on Tuesday, Macquarie strategists revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories shall be up by 2.7 million barrels for the week ending July 4.
“This follows a 3.8 million barrel construct within the prior week, with the crude steadiness realizing considerably looser than our expectations,” the strategists said within the report.
“For this week’s crude steadiness, from refineries, we mannequin a minimal discount in crude runs. Amongst web imports, we mannequin a pointy discount, with exports up (+0.7 million barrels per day) and imports down (-0.6 million barrels per day) on a nominal foundation,” they added.
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Within the report, the strategists warned that the timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility on this week’s crude steadiness.
“From implied home provide (prod.+adj.+transfers), we search for a bounce (+1.2 million barrels) on a nominal foundation this week,” the strategists went on to state within the report.
“Rounding out the image, we anticipate one other small enhance in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] shares (+0.2 million barrels) this week,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists additionally famous within the report that, “amongst merchandise”, they “search for throughout the board builds (gasoline/distillate/ jet +1.0/+2.4/+1.1 million barrels)”.
“We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~14.3 million barrels per day for the week ending July 4 amidst vacation results,” they added.
“On this entrance, whereas the week of July 4th sometimes sees a big discount to distillate demand, the timing/magnitude of this influence may probably be affected/lowered by the vacation falling on a Friday this yr,” the strategists went on to notice.
In its newest weekly petroleum standing report on the time of writing, which was launched on July 2 and included information for the week ending June 27, the U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. industrial crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, elevated by 3.8 million barrels from the week ending June 20 to the week ending June 27.
That EIA report confirmed that crude oil shares, not together with the SPR, stood at 419.0 million barrels on June 27, 415.1 million barrels on June 20, and 448.5 million barrels on June 28, 2024. The report highlighted that information could not add as much as totals because of unbiased rounding.
Crude oil within the SPR stood at 402.8 million barrels on June 27, 402.5 million barrels on June 20, and 372.6 million barrels on June 28, 2024, the EIA report revealed. Whole petroleum shares – together with crude oil, complete motor gasoline, gasoline ethanol, kerosene sort jet gasoline, distillate gasoline oil, residual gasoline oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.642 billion barrels on June 27, the report identified. Whole petroleum shares had been up 9.6 million barrels week on week and down 12.8 million barrels yr on yr, the EIA report confirmed.
An oil and gasoline report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie workforce on June 30 revealed that Macquarie strategists had been forecasting that U.S. crude inventories can be down by 1.3 million barrels for the week ending June 27.
“This follows a 5.8 million barrel draw within the prior week, with the crude steadiness once more realizing considerably tighter than our expectations amidst one other week of disappointing web imports,” the Macquarie strategists said in that report.
U.S. industrial crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, dropped by 5.8 million barrels from the week ending June 13 to the week ending June 20, the EIA highlighted in its weekly petroleum standing report launched on June 25.
To contact the writer, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
