In a report despatched to Rigzone this week, Macquarie strategists revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will probably be down 3.5 million barrels for the week ending Might 10.
“This compares to a 1.4 million barrel draw for the week ending Might 3, with the overall U.S. crude steadiness realizing considerably tighter than we had anticipated final week,” the strategists famous within the report.
“For this week, from refineries, we mannequin one other uptick in crude runs (+0.3 million barrels per day). Amongst web imports, we anticipate a reasonable lower, with exports down barely on a nominal foundation (-0.1 million barrels per day) and imports considerably decrease (-0.6 million barrels per day),” they added.
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Timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility on this week’s crude steadiness, the strategists warned within the report.
“From implied home provide (prod.+adj.+transfers), we search for a bounce-back (+0.5 million barrels per day) following a mushy nominal print final week,” they added.
“Rounding out the image, we anticipate a smaller improve in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stock (+0.6 million barrels) on the week,” they went on to state.
The strategists additionally outlined within the report that, at Cushing, their refinery/pipeline mannequin is asking for a 0.1 million barrel draw this week.
“Amongst merchandise, we search for attracts in gasoline (-2.5 million barrels) and distillate (-0.2 million barrels), with a construct in jet (+0.5 million barrels),” they stated.
“We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~14.2 million barrels per day for the week ending Might 10,” they added within the report.
In its weekly petroleum standing report launched on Might 8, the U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) revealed that U.S. business crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, decreased by 1.4 million barrels from the week ending April 26 to the week ending Might 3.
Crude oil shares within the U.S., not together with the SPR, stood at 459.5 million barrels on Might 3, 460.9 million barrels on March 26, and 462.6 million barrels on Might 5, 2023, the report revealed. Crude oil within the SPR stood at 367.2 million barrels on Might 3, 366.3 million barrels on April 26, and 362.0 million barrels on Might 3, 2023, the report outlined.
Whole petroleum shares within the U.S. – together with crude oil, complete motor gasoline, gas ethanol, kerosene kind jet gas, distillate gas oil, residual gas oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.606 billion barrels on Might 3, the report confirmed. This determine was down 1.2 million barrels week on week and up 9.9 million barrels yr on yr, the report revealed.
“At 459.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about three p.c under the 5 yr common for this time of yr,” the EIA stated in its Might 8 weekly petroleum standing report.
“Whole motor gasoline inventories elevated by 0.9 million barrels from final week and are about two p.c under the 5 yr common for this time of yr,” it added.
“Each completed gasoline and mixing elements inventories elevated final week. Distillate gas inventories elevated by 0.6 million barrels final week and are about seven p.c under the 5 yr common for this time of yr,” it continued.
“Propane/propylene inventories elevated by 2.2 million barrels from final week and are 13 p.c above the 5 yr common,” the EIA went on to state.
In a report despatched to Rigzone final week, previous to the discharge of the EIA’s Might 8 weekly petroleum standing report, Macquarie strategists revealed that they had been forecasting that U.S. crude inventories can be up 1.2 million barrels for the week ending Might 3.
The EIA’s subsequent weekly petroleum standing report is scheduled to be launched on Might 15. It should present knowledge for the week ending Might 8, the group’s web site highlights.
To contact the creator, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
