In an oil and fuel market word despatched to Rigzone late Monday by the Macquarie workforce, Macquarie strategists revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories might be down 1.2 million barrels for the week ending November 15.
“This compares to our early search for the week which anticipated a 4.3 million barrel construct, and a 2.1 million barrel construct realized for the week ending November 8,” the strategists stated within the word.
“Whereas our crude stability seems considerably tighter than our preliminary expectations, on an combination foundation, our product balances seem little modified,” they added.
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“For this week’s crude stability, from refineries, we mannequin crude runs down modestly (-0.2 million barrels per day). Amongst internet imports, we mannequin a wholesome lower, with exports (+1.3 million barrels per day) and imports (+0.6 million barrels per day) larger on a nominal foundation,” they continued.
The strategists warned within the report that timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility on this week’s crude stability.
“From implied home provide (prod.+adj.+transfers), we search for a small improve on a nominal foundation (+0.2 million barrels per day) amidst Gulf of Mexico disruptions,” the strategists stated within the report.
“Rounding out the image, we anticipate a bigger improve in Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stock (+1.4 million barrels) on the week,” they added.
The strategists went on to state within the word that, amongst merchandise, they “search for attracts in gasoline (-2.4 million barrels) and distillate (-0.3 million barrels), with a construct in jet (+0.7 million barrels)”.
“We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~14.5 million barrels per day for the week ending November 15,” they stated.
In a separate oil and fuel market word despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie workforce final Friday, Macquarie strategists outlined that they noticed “potential for a wholesome U.S. crude inventory construct” within the U.S. Vitality Data Administration’s (EIA) upcoming weekly petroleum standing report.
“Looking forward to subsequent week’s launch, we see potential for a wholesome U.S. crude inventory construct (+4.3 million barrels), with runs down barely (-0.1 million barrels per day), nominal implied provide larger (+0.2 million barrels per day), internet imports modestly larger (+0.2 million barrels per day), and a bigger improve in SPR stock (+1.4 million barrels) on the week,” the Macquarie strategists stated in that market word.
“We word potential for volatility in these figures given the unfinished nature of this week’s knowledge, GOM storm impacts, and our expectation for a step-up in imports and exports,” they added.
“Amongst merchandise, our preliminary expectations level to a attract gasoline (-3.3 million barrels), with distillate practically flat (+0.1 million barrels), and a construct in jet (+1.2 million barrels).
The EIA’s subsequent weekly petroleum standing report might be launched on November 20 and can embody knowledge for the week ending November 15.
In its newest weekly petroleum standing report, which was launched on November 14 and contains knowledge for the week ending November 8, the EIA revealed that crude oil shares, excluding the SPR, stood at 429.7 million barrels on November 8, 427.7 million barrels on November 1, and 439.4 million barrels on November 10, 2023.
“U.S. business crude oil inventories (excluding these within the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) elevated by 2.1 million barrels from the earlier week,” the EIA famous in its report.
“At 429.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4 p.c beneath the 5 yr common for this time of yr,” it added.
Whole petroleum shares stood at 1.628 billion barrels on November 8, in response to the EIA report, which outlined that this determine was down 5.9 million barrels week on week and up 13.6 million barrels yr on yr.
The EIA’s weekly petroleum standing report highlighted that knowledge might not add as much as totals as a consequence of impartial rounding.
To contact the creator, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
