In a report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie group late Monday, Macquarie strategists revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories can be “successfully flat (+0.1 million barrels) for the week ending September 27”.
“This compares to our early search for the week which anticipated a 3.6 million barrel construct, and a 4.5 million barrel draw realized for the week ending September 20,” the strategists said within the report.
“Relative to our preliminary view for the week, we search for tighter crude and related mixture product balances,” they added.
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“Transferring to this week’s crude steadiness, from refineries, we mannequin crude runs decrease (-0.2 million barrels per day). Amongst web imports, we mannequin little change, with exports down minimally and imports down barely (-0.1 million barrels per day),” they continued.
The strategists famous within the report that the timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility on this week’s crude steadiness.
“From implied home provide (prod.+adj.+transfers), following final week’s weak print, we search for a bounce-back (+0.4 million barrels per day) on a nominal foundation, regardless of one other wave of Gulf of Mexico disruptions,” the strategists added.
“Rounding out the image, we anticipate a smaller enhance in Strategic Petroleum Reserve stock (+0.7 million barrels) on the week,” they continued.
“Amongst merchandise, we search for a attract distillate (-1.4 million barrels), with gasoline shares barely decrease (-0.3 million barrels) and jet shares successfully flat. We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~14.2 million barrels per day for the week ending September 27,” they went on to state.
In a report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie group on September 26, Macquarie strategists outlined that they noticed “potential for a wholesome business U.S. crude inventory construct” on this week’s U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) weekly petroleum standing report.
“Looking forward to subsequent week’s launch, we see potential for a wholesome business U.S. crude inventory construct (+3.6 million barrels), with runs down barely (-0.1 million barrels per day), nominal implied provide bouncing again (+0.4 million barrels per day), a rise in web imports (+0.5 million barrels per day nominally), and a smaller enhance in SPR stock (+0.5 million barrels) on the week,” they mentioned in that report.
“We notice potential for volatility in these figures given the unfinished nature of this week’s knowledge. Amongst merchandise, our preliminary expectations level to average builds in gasoline (+0.7 million barrels) and jet (+0.5 million barrels), with a big attract distillate (-3.2 million barrels).
The EIA’s subsequent weekly petroleum standing report is scheduled to be launched on October 2. It can present knowledge for the week ending September 27.
The group’s newest weekly petroleum standing report, which was launched on September 25 and confirmed knowledge for the week ending September 20, revealed that crude oil shares, excluding the SPR, stood at 413.0 million barrels on September 20, 417.5 million barrels on September 13, and 416.3 million barrels on September 22, 2023.
“U.S. business crude oil inventories (excluding these within the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.5 million barrels from the earlier week,” the EIA said in its newest weekly petroleum standing report.
“At 413.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5 % beneath the 5 12 months common for this time of 12 months,” it added.
“Whole motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels from final week and are about one % beneath the 5 12 months common for this time of 12 months. Completed gasoline and mixing elements inventories each decreased final week,” it continued.
“Distillate gasoline inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels final week and are about 9 % beneath the 5 12 months common for this time of 12 months. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels from final week and are 9 % above the 5 12 months common for this time of 12 months,” it went on to state.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
