In an oil and gasoline report despatched to Rigzone late Monday by the Macquarie workforce, Macquarie strategists revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will likely be “up modestly (+1.9 million barrels) for the week ending October 4”.
“This compares to our early search for the week which anticipated a 6.7 million barrel construct, and a 3.9 million barrel construct realized for the week ending September 27,” the strategists famous within the report.
“Relative to our preliminary view for the week, we once more search for tighter crude and comparable combination product balances,” they added.
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Within the report, the strategists famous that, for this week’s crude steadiness, from refineries, they mannequin crude runs barely greater “+0.1 million barrels per day”.
“Amongst internet imports, we mannequin a big discount, with exports up barely (+0.1 million barrels per day) and imports down closely (-0.7 million barrels per day) on a nominal foundation. Timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility on this week’s crude steadiness,” they stated.
“From implied home provide (prod.+adj. +transfers), we search for a wholesome enhance (+0.5 million barrels per day) on a nominal foundation, as Gulf of Mexico disruptions wane. Rounding out the image, we anticipate a smaller enhance in SPR stock (+0.3 million barrels) on the week,” they added.
The strategists went on to state within the report that, amongst merchandise, they “search for attracts in gasoline (-2.6 million barrels) and distillate (-2.8 million barrels) with jet shares up barely (+0.1 million barrels)”.
“We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~14.2 million barrels per day for the week ending October 4,” they continued.
In a separate report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie workforce final Thursday, Macquarie strategists outlined that, within the U.S. Power Info Administration’s (EIA) weekly petroleum standing report scheduled to be launched on October 9, they noticed “potential for a big business U.S. crude inventory construct”.
“Waiting for subsequent week’s launch, we see potential for a big business U.S. crude inventory construct (+6.7 million barrels), with runs up barely (+0.1 million barrels per day), nominal implied provide stepping up as GOM disruptions abate (+0.5 million barrels per day), internet imports little modified, and an identical enhance in SPR stock (+0.6 million barrels) on the week,” they stated in that report.
“We word potential for volatility in these figures given the unfinished nature of this week’s knowledge. Amongst merchandise, our preliminary expectations level to wholesome attracts in gasoline (-2.7 million barrels) and distillate (-3.0 million barrels), with a construct in jet (+0.5 million barrels),” they added.
On this report, the Macquarie strategists highlighted that, that week, “the EIA reported builds in business crude (+3.9 million barrels), gasoline (+1.1 million barrels) and Cushing (+0.8 million barrels), with attracts in distillate (-1.3 million barrels) and jet (-0.7 million barrels)”.
“In complete, crude and product balances got here in unfastened relative to our expectations,” they identified.
The strategists acknowledged in that report that, inside the crude steadiness, “runs had been effectively under our expectation (-0.5 million barrels per day), with internet imports modestly greater than anticipated on a nominal foundation (+0.2 million barrels per day)”.
“Implied dom. provide (prod.+adj.+trans.) was 13.6 million barrels per day nominally (we modeled ~13.8 million barrels per day), with the trailing 4 week common at 13.7 million barrels per day nominally,” they added.
“When adjusted for Third-party estimated waterborne flows, this week’s implied provide determine once more appears to be like fairly sturdy, significantly contemplating one other wave of GOM outages,” they continued.
The strategists went on to state in that report that, inside merchandise, “implied demand was barely under our expectation this week, with gasoline+distillate+jet at 14.1 million barrels per day (vs. ~14.2 million barrel per day est.), with the trailing 4 week common at 14.2 million barrels per day vs. 13.9 million barrels per day for a similar 4 weeks final yr”.
“Complete disappearance (impl. demand + exports) for these three merchandise was additionally near our expectation at 16.7 million barrels per day (vs. ~16.6 million barrel per day est.), with the trailing 4 week common at 16.7 million barrels per day vs. 16.1 million barrels per day for a similar 4 weeks final yr,” they added.
“In the meantime, crude runs are up 0.1 million barrels per day yr on yr over the identical interval,” they continued.
To contact the writer, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
