In an oil and gasoline report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie crew late Monday, Macquarie strategists revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories might be up by 0.6 million barrels for the week ending February 21.
“This compares to our early search for the week which anticipated a 0.7 million barrel construct, and a 4.6 million barrel construct realized for the week ending February 14,” the strategists stated within the report.
“On the product facet of the ledger, in mixture, our expectations are modestly tighter than our early view,” they added.
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“For this week’s crude stability, from refineries, we mannequin crude runs down minimally. Amongst web imports, we mannequin a modest improve, with exports (+0.3 million barrels per day) and imports up (+0.5 million barrels per day) on a nominal foundation,” they continued.
The strategists famous within the report that timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility on this week’s crude stability.
“From implied home provide (prod.+adj.+transfers), amidst potential climate impacts and following a powerful print final week, we search for a big discount (-0.8 million barrels per day) this week,” the strategists went on to state.
“Rounding out the image, we anticipate no change in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] shares once more this week,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists additionally revealed within the report that, “amongst merchandise”, they “search for attracts in gasoline (-1.2 million barrels) and distillate (-2.9 million barrels), with a small construct in jet (+0.1 million barrels)”.
“We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~14.3 million barrels per day for the week ending February 21,” the strategists stated within the report.
In an oil and gasoline report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie crew on Friday, Macquarie strategists outlined that they “anticipate a small U.S. crude construct” within the U.S. Vitality Info Administration’s (EIA) subsequent weekly petroleum standing report.
That report is scheduled to be launched on February 26 and can embrace information for the week ending February 21.
“Looking forward to subsequent week’s launch, we anticipate a small U.S. crude construct (+0.7 million barrels), with runs barely increased (+0.1 million barrels per day) and web imports up reasonably (+0.5 million barrels per day), nominal implied provide down sharply amidst potential climate impacts and following a really sturdy print (-0.8 million barrels per day), and a bigger improve in SPR stock (+0.9 million barrels) on the week,” the Macquarie strategists stated within the report despatched to Rigzone on February 21.
“We notice potential for volatility in these figures given the unfinished nature of this week’s information. Amongst merchandise, our preliminary expectations level to attracts in gasoline (-0.3 million barrels) and distillate (-2.8 million barrels) with jet shares increased (+0.4 million barrels),” they added.
U.S. business crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, elevated by 4.6 million barrels from the week ending February 7 to the week ending February 14, the EIA highlighted in its newest weekly petroleum standing report on the time of writing. This report was launched on February 20 and included information for the week ending February 14.
The EIA report confirmed that crude oil shares, not together with the SPR, stood at 432.5 million barrels on February 14, 427.9 million barrels on February 7, and 443.0 million barrels on February 16, 2024. Crude oil within the SPR stood at 395.3 million barrels on February 14 and February 7, and 359.5 million barrels on February 16, 2024, the report outlined.
Complete petroleum shares – together with crude oil, complete motor gasoline, gas ethanol, kerosene sort jet gas, distillate gas oil, residual gas oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.607 billion barrels on February 14, the report confirmed. Complete petroleum shares had been up 0.2 million barrels week on week and up 16.4 million barrels 12 months on 12 months, the report outlined.
To contact the creator, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
