In an oil and fuel report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie workforce late Monday, Macquarie strategists revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will probably be up 4.8 million barrels for the week ending January 24.
“This compares to our early search for the week which anticipated a 2.7 million barrel construct, and a 1.0 million barrel draw realized for the week ending January 17,” the strategists mentioned within the report.
“On the product facet of the ledger, in mixture, our expectations are modestly looser than our early view,” they added.
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Within the report, the Macquarie strategists famous that, “for this week’s crude stability, from refineries”, they “mannequin crude runs minimally decrease following a weak print final week”.
“Amongst web imports, we mannequin a big improve, with exports sharply decrease (-0.9 million barrels per day) and imports down modestly (-0.2 million barrels per day) on a nominal foundation,” the strategists added.
Timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility on this week’s crude stability, whereas winter climate impacts might create distortions throughout crude and product balances, the Macquarie strategists said within the report.
“In any occasion, from implied home provide (prod.+adj.+transfers), we search for a slight improve (+0.1 million barrels per day) following a delicate nominal print final week,” they continued.
“Rounding out the image, we anticipate one other small improve in SPR stock (+0.2 million barrels) on the week,” they went on to state.
The strategists additionally famous within the report that, “amongst merchandise”, they “search for builds in gasoline (+3.6 million barrels) and jet (+0.5 million barrels), with a attract distillate (-1.4 million barrels)”.
“We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~13.7 million barrels per day for the week ending January 24,” they added.
In an oil and fuel report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie workforce on Friday, Macquarie strategists outlined that they “anticipate a average U.S. crude construct” within the U.S. Power Info Administration’s (EIA) upcoming weekly petroleum standing report.
That report is scheduled to be launched on January 29 and can embody information for the week ending January 24. The newest weekly petroleum standing report from the EIA, on the time of writing, was launched on January 23 and included information for the week ending January 17.
“Looking forward to subsequent week’s launch, we anticipate a average U.S. crude construct (+2.7 million barrels), with runs up barely (+0.1 million barrels per day) regardless of winter climate impacts, nominal implied provide down minimally amidst potential giant freeze impacts, web imports considerably larger (+0.8 million barrels per day), and a bigger improve in SPR stock (+0.9 million barrels) on the week,” the strategists mentioned in that report.
“We observe potential for volatility in these figures given the unfinished nature of this week’s information and potential storm impacts throughout crude and merchandise balances,” they added.
“Amongst merchandise, our preliminary expectations level to a different construct in gasoline (+3.4 million barrels) and jet (+0.8 million barrels), with distillate shares meaningfully decrease (-2.2 million barrels),” they continued.
Within the report, the Macquarie strategists highlighted that, final week, the EIA “reported attracts in industrial crude (-1.0 million barrels) and at Cushing (-0.1 million barrels), with combined product stats (gasoline +2.3 million barrels, distillate -3.1 million barrels, jet +0.1 million barrels)”.
“Bucking the latest development, the crude stability realized a lot looser than our expectations, whereas in mixture, product balances have been tighter. In each instances, extraordinarily weak refining runs assist bridge the hole,” the strategists added within the report.
“After a interval of sustained outperformance, runs realized properly beneath our expectation this week (-0.5 million barrels per day). As well as, web imports have been a lot larger than anticipated on a nominal foundation (+1.2 million barrels per day),” they continued.
“Implied home provide (prod.+adj. +trans.) was a nominally delicate 13.2 million barrels per day (we modeled ~13.9 million barrels per day); this determine seems a lot stronger when adjusted for third-party estimated waterborne flows,” they went on to state.
The Macquarie strategists additionally famous within the report that, “amongst merchandise, implied demand was barely beneath” their “expectation … with gasoline+distillate+jet at 13.8 million barrels per day (vs. ~13.9 million barrels per day est.), with the trailing 4 week common at 13.4 million barrels per day vs. 12.9 million barrels per day for a similar 4 weeks final 12 months”.
“In distinction, whole disappearance (impl. demand + exports) for these three merchandise was barely above our expectation at 16.3 million barrels per day (vs. ~16.2 million barrels per day est.), with the trailing 4 week common at 15.9 million barrels per day vs. 15.2 million barrels per day for a similar 4 weeks final 12 months,” they added.
In its January 23 weekly petroleum standing report, the EIA highlighted that U.S. industrial crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, decreased by 1.0 million barrels from the week ending January 10 to the week ending January 17.
Crude oil shares, excluding the SPR, stood at 411.7 million barrels on January 17, 412.7 million barrels on January 10, and 420.7 million barrels on January 19, 2024, the report confirmed. Crude oil within the SPR got here in at 394.6 million barrels on January 17, 394.3 million barrels on January 10, and 356.5 million barrels on January 19, 2024, the report highlighted.
Complete petroleum shares – together with crude oil, whole motor gasoline, gas ethanol, kerosene kind jet gas, distillate gas oil, residual gas oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.621 billion barrels on January 17, the report revealed. This determine was down 3.9 million barrels week on week and up 24.2 million barrels 12 months on 12 months, the report outlined.
To contact the creator, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
