In an oil and fuel report despatched to Rigzone late Monday, Macquarie strategists revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories can be up by 5.6 million barrels for the week ending February 23.
“This compares to a 3.5 million barrel construct for the week ending February 16, with the entire U.S. crude steadiness realizing tighter than we had anticipated,” the strategists famous within the report.
“Transferring to this week, from refineries, we mannequin a rise in crude runs (+0.3 million barrels per day), following a modestly stronger print than we anticipated final week,” they added.
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“Amongst internet imports, we anticipate a modest nominal enhance, with exports barely decrease on a nominal foundation (-0.1 million barrels per day) and imports barely larger (+0.1 million barrels per day),” they continued.
The strategists warned within the report that the timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility on this week’s crude steadiness.
“From implied home provide (prod.+adj.+transfers), we search for a nominal enhance (+0.4 million barrels per day) relative to final week’s tender print,” the strategists stated within the report.
“Rounding out the image, we anticipate a barely bigger enhance in SPR stock (+0.8 million barrels) on the week,” they added.
The strategists additionally revealed within the report that, at Cushing, their refinery/pipeline mannequin is looking for a construct of 0.9 million barrels this week.
“Amongst merchandise, we search for attracts in gasoline (-2.6 million barrels) and distillate (-1.8 million barrels), with jet shares comparatively flat once more this week (-0.1 million barrels),” they stated within the report.
“We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~13.9 million barrels per day for the week ending February 23,” they added.
In its newest weekly petroleum standing report, which was launched on February 22 and included knowledge for the week ending February 16, the U.S. Vitality Info Administration (EIA) revealed that U.S. business crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, elevated by 3.5 million barrels from the week ending February 9 to the week ending February 16.
The nation’s crude oil shares, not together with the SPR, stood at 443.0 million barrels on February 16, 439.5 million barrels on February 9, and 479.0 million barrels on February 17, 2023, that report confirmed. Crude oil within the SPR stood at 359.5 million barrels on February 16, 358.8 million barrels on February 9, and 371.6 million barrels on February 17, 2023, based on the report.
Whole petroleum shares within the U.S. – together with crude oil, whole motor gasoline, gas ethanol, kerosene kind jet gas, distillate gas oil, residual gas oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.591 billion barrels on February 16, the report outlined. This determine was unchanged week on week and down 42.1 million barrels 12 months on 12 months, the report revealed.
In a report despatched to Rigzone on February 20, Macquarie strategists revealed that they have been forecasting that U.S. crude inventories could be up by 8.4 million barrels for the week ending February 16.
“This compares to a 12.0 million barrel construct for the week ending February 9, with the entire U.S. crude steadiness realizing modestly tighter than we had anticipated, regardless of the heavy construct,” the strategists famous in that report.
The strategists additionally revealed in that report that they anticipated a 0.7 million barrel enhance in SPR stock on the week.
The EIA’s subsequent weekly petroleum standing report is at present scheduled to be launched on February 28. It is going to embrace knowledge for the week ending February 23.
To contact the creator, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
