In a report despatched to Rigzone this week, Macquarie strategists outlined that their base case sees U.S. oil exiting 2024 at round 14 million barrels per day and 2025 at round 14.5 million barrels per day.
“We just lately up to date our U.S. oil manufacturing expectations, which nonetheless ponder U.S. provide reaching ~14 million barrels per day by 12 months finish 2024, albeit with slight downward revisions to our shale outlook offset by anticipated Gulf of Mexico energy,” the strategists acknowledged within the report.
“Searching to 2025, we mannequin U.S. manufacturing exiting the 12 months at ~14.5 million barrels per day, regardless of our expectation for considerably decrease crude costs subsequent 12 months,” the strategists added.
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“For 2024, we imagine headwinds to shale development, particularly industrial friction from a wave of acquisitions and apparently subdued public firm steerage, are properly understood,” they continued.
“But, the shale panorama is just not bereft of potential development drivers in 2024, amidst ongoing value deflation and the potential for counter-cyclical effectivity/productiveness positive factors,” the strategists went on to state.
The Macquarie strategists additionally famous within the report that, “ought to shale development disappoint this 12 months”, they’d “resist the urge to extrapolate that efficiency to 2025 and past”.
“Finally, this 12 months’s headwinds may flip to tailwinds in a state of affairs the place the expansion impulse from personal firms recharges and public firms assault high-graded useful resource bases subsequent 12 months,” the strategists added.
In a separate report despatched to Rigzone on March 4, Macquarie strategists mentioned they continue to be “extremely attuned to the potential for productiveness/effectivity positive factors offering a tailwind to shale development in 2024”.
“Within the Permian basin, via January 2024, our tough proxy of higher-frequency drilling effectivity, properly spuds per horizontal rig, seems to be displaying current positive factors,” they added.
“Though public firm capital self-discipline and the previous 12 months’s flurry of acquisitions of personal firms stay oft-cited headwinds to shale development, we stay watchful for potential counter-cyclical effectivity positive factors and capital value deflation growing as underappreciated development drivers in 2024 and past,” they continued.
In one other report despatched to Rigzone on February 5, Macquarie strategists mentioned short-term forecasting of U.S. oil manufacturing “is a messy affair”.
“In any occasion, we nonetheless see potential for December 2023 manufacturing of practically 13.4 million barrels per day, with a 2024 exit fee of ~14 million barrels per day,” the strategists added in that report.
Based on knowledge on the U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) web site, which reveals month-to-month U.S. area manufacturing of crude oil from January 1920 to December 2023 and was final up to date on February 29, U.S. area manufacturing of crude oil has solely hit 13 million barrels per day or above in six months. The best determine within the knowledge got here in November 2023, at 13.319 million barrels per day. In December 2023, U.S. area manufacturing of crude oil got here in at 13.315 million barrels per day, the information revealed.
In its newest quick time period power outlook (STEO), which was launched earlier this month, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil manufacturing will common 12.91 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2024, 13.13 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 13.25 million barrels per day within the third quarter, 13.47 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter, and 13.19 million barrels per day total in 2024.
The EIA forecast within the STEO that U.S. crude oil manufacturing will common 13.49 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2025, 13.66 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 13.68 million barrels per day within the third quarter, 13.78 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter, and 13.65 million barrels per day total in 2025.
Based on its newest STEO, U.S. crude oil output averaged 13.28 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter of final 12 months and 12.93 million barrels per day total in 2023. The EIA’s earlier February STEO projected that U.S. crude oil output would are available in at 13.10 million barrels per day total in 2024 and 13.49 million barrels per day total in 2025.
To contact the writer, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
