International oil demand averaged 102.5 million barrels per day by September 18.
That’s what J.P. Morgan analysts acknowledged in a analysis notice despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis crew late Wednesday, highlighting that the determine marks a “200,000 barrel per day enhance from the identical interval final 12 months however … 600,000 barrels per day wanting our estimates”.
“Regardless of an 800,000 barrel per day week over week enchancment, complete oil demand stays considerably under our revealed projections,” the analysts warned within the notice.
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“12 months to this point by September 18, world oil demand has grown by 1.1 million barrels per day, in contrast with our November forecast of a 1.5 million barrel per day enhance,” they added.
Within the notice, the analysts acknowledged that, following Storm Yagi, China was struck by Storm Bebinca on September 16 and is now getting ready for Storm Pulasan. The newest storm is predicted to affect the coastal financial hubs within the coming days, the analysts warned within the notice.
“Consequently, transport and industrial actions within the area are more likely to be disrupted, with day by day home Chinese language flights already averaging close to their lowest volumes for the 12 months,” they stated.
“Additional disruptions resulting from ongoing floods throughout Europe and Africa are additionally contributing to a draw back threat for our September world oil demand forecast, with an annualized affect of fifty,000 barrels per day,” they added.
The analysts acknowledged within the notice that world observable oil inventories had been internet flat through the second week of September, following a 32 million barrel construct within the week prior.
“By cut up, seen crude shares decreased by 5 million barrels, with a 22 million barrel attract China being offset by will increase in different areas,” they stated.
“In the meantime, inventories of oil merchandise elevated by 5 million barrels, largely pushed by the US,” they continued.
“Reported seen OECD industrial oil shares (U.S., Europe, Japan, and Singapore) mirrored world inventory actions, displaying a slight two million barrel construct within the second week of September,” the analysts went on to state.
“By cut up, crude oil inventories remained flat for the week, whereas oil merchandise elevated by two million barrels,” they stated.
In a separate analysis notice despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis crew on September 12, analysts at J.P. Morgan stated world oil demand averaged 102.2 million barrels per day by September 11, “recording a 100,000 barrel per day progress from year-ago ranges however 0.9 million barrels per day under our estimates”.
In that notice, the analysts stated they “attribute this to storm Yagi in Asia and the approaching hurricane Francine within the U.S. Gulf Coast which have weighed on regional journey actions”.
An advisory posted on the Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Affiliation’s (NOAA) Nationwide Hurricane Heart (NHC) web site at 5pm CDT on September 11 acknowledged that Francine had “made landfall in southern Louisiana within the Parish of Terrebonne, about 30 miles south-southwest of Morgan Metropolis, as a Class 2 hurricane”.
Within the September 12 notice, J.P. Morgan analysts highlighted that, 12 months to this point by the primary week of September, world oil demand was monitoring 1.13 million barrels per day progress in contrast with its November projections of a 1.5 million barrel per day gain. The analysts stated in that notice, nonetheless, that they “anticipate it to rebound as quickly because the climate normalizes over the approaching days”.
International observable oil inventories constructed by 32 million barrels within the first week of September, erasing nearly half of August’s noticed draw of 79 million barrels, the analysts stated in that notice.
“By cut up, seen crude shares constructed by 21 million barrels, most of that in China, whereas inventories of oil merchandise rose by 11 million barrels, eight million barrels of that in the US,” they added.
“Reported seen OECD industrial oil shares (U.S., Europe, Japan, and Singapore) adopted world inventory actions, constructing by 12 million barrels within the first week of September,” they continued.
In one other notice despatched to Rigzone on September 5 by the JPM Commodities Analysis crew, analysts at J.P. Morgan stated world oil demand averaged 104.5 million barrels per day in August, “rising by 1.2 million barrels per day over year-ago ranges and 100,000 barrels per day above our estimates”.
“12 months to this point, world oil demand can be monitoring 1.2 million barrel per day progress in contrast with our November projections of a 1.7 million barrel per day gain,” the analysts acknowledged in that analysis notice.
“Our 12 months to this point progress was adjusted decrease by 100,000 barrels per day resulting from upward revision of historic consumption information for the U.S. in 2023 and a barely decrease Chinese language demand for 2024,” they added.
On this notice, the analysts stated world observable oil inventories drew by 5.5 million barrels within the closing week of August, “pushed by a 5.8 million barrel attract oil merchandise whereas crude oil inventories recorded a slight construct”.
“For the month, world observable oil inventories drew by 1.8 million barrels per day, stronger than our implied month-to-month draw. By cut up, seen crude oil inventories drew by 57 million barrels whereas oil merchandise inventories drew by seven million barrels,” they added on the time.
“The worldwide noticed draw was largely pushed by inventory modifications within the U.S. and China, which mixed accounted for 60 % of the worldwide oil stock motion,” they continued.
“Reported seen OECD industrial oil shares (U.S., Europe, Japan, and Singapore) drew by 7.5 million barrels within the closing week of August,” they went on to state.
“By cut up, crude oil inventories drew by 5.3 million barrels whereas oil product inventories drew by 2.2 million barrels led by each crude and product attracts in the US,” they stated.
To contact the writer, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
