World oil demand in early Might signifies a tepid yr over yr progress, analysts at J.P. Morgan, together with Natasha Kaneva, Head of World Commodities Technique on the firm, mentioned in a analysis word despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis group on Thursday.
“The ultimate figures for world liquids demand in 1Q25 aligned with our forecast, growing by 1.6 million barrels per day yr over yr,” the analysts mentioned within the word.
“Preliminary information for April point out consumption was flat with final yr’s ranges and 500,000 barrel per day under our expectations. The weak point seems to have prolonged into early Might,” they added.
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Within the analysis word, the J.P. Morgan analysts acknowledged that, as of Might 6, world oil demand averaged 103.5 million barrels per day. They identified within the word that this marked a rise of 280,000 barrels per day on yr in the past ranges, which they mentioned “is sort of half of the anticipated tempo of 550,000 barrels per day for the month”.
“We anticipate that oil demand will seemingly enhance within the coming weeks because the summer season driving season kicks off within the northern hemisphere,” the J.P. Morgan analysts went on to state.
Within the word, the J.P. Morgan analysts mentioned that, within the first week of Might, “seen OECD business oil inventory (together with the U.S., Europe, and Singapore) reported a 4 million barrel decline”. The analysts famous {that a} six million barrel drop in oil merchandise shares was partially offset by a two million barrel enhance in crude oil shares.
“Globally, complete liquid shares elevated by eight million barrels within the first week of Might, marking seven will increase over the previous eight weeks,” the J.P. Morgan analysts mentioned within the analysis word.
“Observable oil product shares skilled a drawdown of three million barrels, whereas crude shares rose by 11 million barrels. The continued construct in crude shares is primarily pushed by a major enhance in Chinese language crude shares, which reported a 26 million barrel construct,” they added.
In a analysis word despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis group on April 30, J.P. Morgan analysts, together with Kaneva, mentioned “in April, world oil demand averaged 102 million barrels per day, remaining unchanged from yr in the past ranges, making a major shift from the 1.7 million barrel per day progress noticed within the first quarter”.
“Our estimates from the Yr Forward Outlook had projected a 500,000 barrel per day progress in oil demand for April,” they added in that analysis word.
“The uncertainty surrounding the financial outlook seemingly contributed to stalled progress,” they went on to state.
In that analysis word, the J.P. Morgan analysts highlighted that, “within the ultimate week of April, seen OECD business oil inventory (together with the U.S., Europe, Japan, and Singapore) reported a marginal decline of 280,000 barrels”.
The analysts mentioned in that word that an 8.4 million barrel drop in crude oil shares was largely offset by an 8.1 million barrel enhance in product shares. For the month of April, OECD business shares rose by 5 million barrels, the analysts acknowledged.
“Globally, complete liquid shares rose by 17 million barrels in April, marking the third consecutive month-to-month enhance,” the J.P. Morgan analysts highlighted within the April 30 analysis word.
“Nevertheless, the tempo of stockpiling slowed from 44 million barrels in February and 33 million barrels in March,” they added.
“Observable oil product shares reported a modest two million barrel enhance in April, marking the primary month-to-month construct in 2025. Yr so far, world liquid shares have risen by 62 million barrels, supported by a 102 million barrel enhance in crude shares, whereas oil merchandise decreased by 39 million barrels,” the J.P. Morgan analysts went on to state.
To contact the writer, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
