In January, international oil demand surged to 101.5 million barrels per day, analysts at J.P. Morgan stated in a analysis notice despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis group this week.
The analysts outlined within the notice that this determine marked “a strong 12 months over 12 months enhance of 1.5 million barrels per day” and highlighted that it surpassed their month-to-month projections “by 200,000 barrels per day”.
“The early indicators are promising, hinting that this upward momentum will carry into February, fueled by the nippiness of U.S. winter and the bustling journey scene throughout Asia,” the analysts said within the analysis notice.
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“The urge for food for heating oil is on the rise within the U.S., with the four-week common distillate demand reaching heights not seen since March 2022,” they added.
“In the meantime, in Asia, China’s New Yr vacation journey volumes over the 17-day interval beginning January 19 soared by eight p.c in comparison with final 12 months, outpacing the official forecast of seven p.c,” they added.
“In India, the fervor of journey extends into February, pushed by a non secular pilgrimage anticipated to attract 450 million devotees between January and February, as per authorities estimates,” they continued.
The J.P. Morgan analysts additionally said within the notice that international observable oil inventories noticed a rise of seven million barrels within the closing week of January.
“This web acquire was primarily pushed by a considerable 20 million barrel rise in international crude oil inventories, partially offset by a 13 million barrel decline in oil product inventories,” they stated.
“Regionally, regardless of a big 19 million barrel drawdown in Chinese language crude oil shares, U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels, with the rest of the worldwide crude enhance occurring outdoors the principle areas we monitor,” they added.
“Over the course of January, international observable oil inventories skilled a drawdown of 78 million barrels, led by a 58 million barrel discount in crude oil shares, complemented by an extra 20 million barrel lower in oil product inventories,” they went on to state.
The analysts additionally said within the notice that “reported seen OECD industrial oil shares (together with the U.S., Europe, Japan, and Singapore) recorded a web discount of 5 million barrels within the closing week of January”.
“This decline was primarily pushed by a 16 million barrel discount in oil product shares, though an 11 million barrel enhance in crude oil shares helped to mitigate the general lower,” they stated.
“The week’s inventory actions had been largely influenced by U.S. oil inventories, the place oil product shares fell by 11 million barrels attributable to heightened demand for heating gasoline, whereas crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels, marking the biggest weekly enhance since February 2024,” they added.
“All through January, seen OECD industrial oil shares reported a web draw of 24 million barrels, led by a 31 million barrel discount in oil product shares, whereas crude oil inventories noticed a rise of seven million barrels,” the analysts famous.
In a separate analysis notice despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis group on January 8, J.P. Morgan analysts stated, “early indicators of oil demand recommend a powerful begin to January, possible pushed by elevated use of heating fuels within the Northern Hemisphere because of the chilly climate”.
“We anticipate that oil demand will common 101.4 million barrels per day for the month, marking a 1.4 million barrel per day enhance in comparison with the identical interval final 12 months,” the analysts stated in that report.
“International oil demand is predicted to stay sturdy all through January, fueled by colder than regular winter situations which are boosting heating gasoline consumption, in addition to an earlier onset of journey actions in China for the Lunar New Yr holidays,” the analysts added.
To contact the creator, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
