J.P. Morgan and Customary Chartered outlined their newest Henry Hub fuel worth forecasts in studies despatched to Rigzone just lately.
In response to J.P. Morgan’s report, the corporate sees the U.S. Pure Gasoline Henry Hub worth averaging $2.93 per million British thermal models (MMBtu) in 2024 and $4.75 per MMBtu in 2025. J.P Morgan expects the commodity to common $2.45 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2024, $2.25 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.00 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.00 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, the report confirmed.
The corporate initiatives that the Henry Hub worth will common $4.75 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025, $4.50 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.75 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $5.00 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of subsequent yr, in line with the report, which outlined that the commodity averaged $2.99 per MMBtu in 2023.
“Think about strolling via a darkish tunnel with a glimmer of sunshine up forward,” J.P Morgan analysts famous within the report despatched to Rigzone.
“The trail between you and reaching that mild is mired in quicksand which, if not navigated accurately, is a promise to sink you into an abyss of no return. This darkish image is how we view the plight of most within the U.S. pure fuel upstream group right this moment,” they added.
“However we remind our readers, there’s a mild on the finish of the tunnel – no less than for many who have publicity to Henry Hub,” they continued.
In its report, Customary Chartered revealed that it sees the NYMEX foundation Henry Hub close by future worth averaging $4.80 per MMBtu within the first and second quarters of 2024, and $4.70 per MMBtu within the third and fourth quarters of this yr. The corporate projected within the report that the commodity will common $4.80 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025, $4.70 per MMBtu within the second quarter of subsequent yr, and $4.80 per MMBtu total in 2025.
Customary Chartered additionally highlighted in its report that the NYMEX foundation Henry Hub close by future worth closed at $1.57 per MMBtu on February 20.
In its February STEO, the U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) forecast that the Henry Hub spot worth will common $2.67 per MMBtu within the first quarter of this yr, $2.20 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $2.66 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $3.08 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, and $2.65 per MMBtu total in 2024.
The EIA’s February STEO forecast that the commodity will common $2.95 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025, $2.64 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $2.98 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $3.20 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, and $2.94 per MMBtu total in 2025. This STEO confirmed that the Henry Hub spot worth averaged $2.54 per MMBtu in 2023.
In its earlier STEO, which was launched in January, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot worth would are available at $2.64 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2024, $2.22 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $2.68 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $3.10 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, and $2.66 per MMBtu total in 2024.
That STEO projected that the commodity would common $2.93 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025, $2.64 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $2.99 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $3.22 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, and $2.95 per MMBtu total in 2025.
In a report despatched to Rigzone again in January, BMI, a Fitch Options firm, projected that the Henry Hub entrance month worth would common $3.4 per MMBtu in 2024 and $3.6 per MMBtu in 2025. A Bloomberg Consensus included in that report forecast that the Henry Hub worth would common $3.3 per MMBtu this yr and $3.8 per MMBtu subsequent yr.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com