In a analysis observe despatched to Rigzone late Friday, analysts at J.P. Morgan stated their high-frequency demand indicators estimate that worldwide oil consumption averaged 103.4 million barrels per day by way of Might 22.
That determine was in step with their revealed estimates, the analysts highlighted within the observe.
“Sequential demand improved markedly in Might after underperforming expectations all through the primary 4 months,” the analysts added.
“As we enter peak demand season subsequent week, we venture world oil liquids demand to enhance by one other 2.7 million barrels per day by the tip of August, measured from the tip of April,” they continued.
In a earlier analysis observe despatched to Rigzone on Might 20, analysts at J.P. Morgan revealed that their high-frequency demand indicators estimated that worldwide oil consumption averaged 103.3 million barrels per day within the first half of Might. That was 90,000 barrels per day above their revealed estimates, the analysts highlighted in that report.
“After underperforming our projections by 400,000 barrels per day within the first 4 months of the 12 months virtually completely resulting from heat winter, demand improved markedly in Might,” the analysts famous in that report.
“12 months up to now, world oil demand rose by 1.7 million barrels per day in comparison with the identical interval final 12 months, in step with our projections from final November,” they added.
In one other observe despatched to Rigzone at first of the month, J.P. Morgan analysts revealed that their demand indicators estimated that world oil consumption averaged 101.5 million barrels per day in April. That was 200,000 barrels per day under their revealed estimates, the analysts identified in that observe.
“On a 12 months over 12 months foundation, demand grew by 1.9 million barrels per day, under our expectations of a 2.1 million barrel per day enhance,” the analysts famous within the report.
“Within the first 4 months of the 12 months, world oil demand rose by 1.4 million barrels per day in comparison with the identical interval final 12 months. Our projections from final November known as for a 2.0 million barrel per day enchancment,” they added.
“The underperformance within the realized demand vs. our expectations throughout January-March interval was virtually completely resulting from hotter winter circumstances and the ensuing weaker demand for heating fuels. The 200,000 barrel per day hole in April was resulting from weaker U.S. gasoline consumption throughout the month,” the analysts went on to state.
In line with the U.S. Vitality Data Administration’s (EIA) newest brief time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched earlier this month, world petroleum and different liquid fuels consumption is anticipated to common 102.41 million barrels per day within the second quarter of this 12 months and 102.84 million barrels per day general in 2024.
It averaged 102.11 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2024 and 101.92 million barrels per day general in 2023, the report confirmed.
In its earlier STEO, which was launched in April, the EIA forecast that worldwide petroleum and different liquids consumption would common 102.73 within the second quarter of 2024 and 102.91 million barrels per day general this 12 months.
That STEO put first quarter 2024 consumption at 102.06 million barrels per day and general 2023 consumption at 101.96 million barrels per day.
In its analysis notes, J.P. Morgan states that its world demand tracker calculates implied demand formulated as – each day complete oil merchandise demand equals complete refinery output plus biofuels mixing plus each day internet imports of merchandise plus each day change in merchandise shares. Whole refinery output is computed as – each day crude runs instances merchandise yield plus NGLs instances merchandise yields, J.P. Morgan provides.
The corporate states in its notes that refinery runs and outages are sourced from IIR, product yields are sourced from Wooden Mackenzie, commerce flows from Kpler, biofuels from Rystad, and merchandise shares from Platts.
To contact the writer, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com