World oil demand averaged 104.4 million barrels per day by way of September 17, marking a 12 months over 12 months enhance of 520,000 barrels per day.
That’s what analysts at J.P. Morgan, together with Natasha Kaneva, head of worldwide commodities technique on the firm, said in a analysis be aware despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis workforce just lately, including that the 104.4 million barrel per day determine “align[ed]… carefully” with their month-to-month forecast.
“12 months up to now by way of September 17, international oil demand progress is monitoring a 0.8 million barrel per day growth towards our estimate of 0.83 million barrels per day,” the analysts stated within the be aware.
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“Month up to now, international oil demand has averaged 104.4 million barrels per day, monitoring barely beneath our estimate of 104.5 [million barrels per day] for September,” they added.
Within the be aware, the J.P. Morgan analysts said that a lot of the demand indicators for oil consumption exterior the U.S. are displaying a continued resilience.
“Chinese language port exercise stays sturdy, highlighted by a seven % 12 months over 12 months enhance in container throughput in the course of the first week of September, signaling wholesome export demand,” they famous.
“Globally, every day flights expanded by 2.6 % in comparison with final 12 months, although the tempo has moderated relative to earlier months. Whereas flight volumes within the U.S. and China are easing because the summer time journey season winds down, exercise in Europe, the Center East, and Latin America continues to develop,” they added.
“On the commercial aspect, imports of petrochemical feedstocks in East Asia have stabilized, following a restoration in July and August after a June stoop,” they continued.
The analysts went on to state that, “within the U.S., container arrival volumes are decelerating, with September arrivals anticipated to be 10 % decrease than final 12 months, in response to knowledge from the Port of Los Angeles”.
The J.P. Morgan analysts warned within the analysis be aware that “early indicators are signaling that this decline is prone to lengthen into October”.
“Moreover, international cargo flight volumes have fallen to a 20-month low following the termination of the de minimis exemption within the U.S. final month, additional dampening total exercise and creating further headwinds for U.S. jet gasoline demand,” they analysts added.
In a analysis be aware despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis workforce on September 4, J.P. Morgan analysts, together with Kaneva, stated international oil demand averaged 105.2 million barrels per day in August.
“World oil demand in August remained regular at a mean of 105.2 million barrels per day, marking 12 months over 12 months progress of 520,000 barrels per day, trailing our month-to-month forecast by 50,000 barrels per day,” the analysts said in that be aware.
“12 months up to now, international oil demand progress has elevated by 0.8 million barrels per day, simply shy of our projected 0.82 million barrels per day,” they added.
The analysts went on to spotlight in that be aware that, “regionally, oil consumption in East and Southeast Asia rebounded from Might’s lows and continued its upward trajectory by way of August”.
“Export exercise in these areas has been buoyed by decrease than anticipated tariffs, serving to to maintain momentum,” they added.
“In the meantime, port operations in each China and the U.S. stay regular, as evidenced by growing container volumes,” they continued.
“Seasonal journey demand has exceeded expectations globally, with every day flights rising 3.8 % 12 months over 12 months. Within the U.S., whole air passenger throughput in August climbed one % in comparison with the identical interval final 12 months, in response to TSA knowledge,” they analysts went on to state.
J.P. Morgan highlighted in its analysis notes that its international demand tracker “calculates implied demand formulated as: every day whole oil product demand = whole refinery output + biofuels mixing + every day internet imports of merchandise + every day change in merchandise shares”.
On its web site, J.P. Morgan describes itself as a number one international monetary providers agency with property of $3.9 trillion and operations worldwide. The corporate has “a legacy relationship again to 1799”, its web site factors out.
To contact the creator, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
