In a analysis be aware despatched to Rigzone by the HSBC group late Tuesday, HSBC Senior World Oil and Fuel Analyst Kim Fustier stated BP’s third quarter buying and selling assertion was “combined to unfavorable”.
“Fuel buying and selling was ‘common’ (identical as 2Q), whereas oil buying and selling was ‘weak’ as oil value volatility subsided (implying an enormous delta vs ‘robust’ in 2Q),” Fustier stated within the be aware.
“On the constructive aspect, 3Q oil and gasoline manufacturing is anticipated to be greater vs 2Q vs ‘barely decrease’ beforehand, due to U.S. onshore (BPX) development. That is the second consecutive quarter when manufacturing will exceed preliminary steering, which suggests good operational regularity, although the monetary affect could also be muted given low U.S. gasoline costs,” Fustier added.
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“In Downstream, stronger refining indicator margins ($15.8/b vs $11.9/b in 2Q) and ‘considerably decrease’ turnarounds (as anticipated) are partly offset by environmental prices and the unplanned Whiting outage in August brought on by extreme climate,” Fustier continued.
“Internet debt is anticipated to be secure q-o-q at $26 billion together with a working capital launch, higher than our forecast of a modest improve,” Fustier acknowledged.
Within the analysis be aware, Fustier revealed that HSBC was elevating its BP third quarter earnings forecast by 4 % to $1.9 billion “as greater manufacturing and a constructive refining mark-to-market are offset by weaker oil buying and selling”.
“Our up to date forecast is barely under consensus. We imagine that 2Q marked the beginning of a restoration at BP. However because the combined 3Q replace exhibits, it should take a number of quarters of constant supply for BP to determine a monitor document,” Fustier stated within the be aware.
Rigzone has contacted BP for touch upon the HSBC analysis be aware. On the time of writing, BP has not responded to Rigzone.
In a launch posted on its web site on October 14, BP introduced “up to date third quarter 2025 steering”.
“Reported upstream manufacturing within the third quarter is now anticipated to be greater in comparison with the prior quarter, with manufacturing greater in each oil manufacturing and operations, primarily greater gasoline manufacturing in BPX vitality, and in gasoline and low carbon vitality,” BP stated in its launch.
“Within the gasoline and low carbon vitality section, realizations, in comparison with the prior quarter, are anticipated to have an effect of round $(0.1) billion, together with adjustments in non-Henry Hub pure gasoline marker costs. The gasoline advertising and marketing and buying and selling result’s anticipated to be common,” it added.
“Within the oil manufacturing and operations section, realizations, in comparison with the prior quarter, are anticipated to be broadly flat, together with the affect of the worth lags on BP’s manufacturing within the Gulf of America and the UAE. In comparison with the prior quarter, exploration write-offs are anticipated to be round $(0.1) billion greater,” it continued.
“Within the clients and merchandise section, in comparison with the prior quarter, outcomes are anticipated to be influenced by the next elements; clients – seasonally greater volumes with broadly flat fuels margins; merchandise – stronger realized refining margins within the vary of $0.3 to 0.4 billion and a considerably decrease degree of turnaround exercise, partly offset by seasonal results of environmental compliance prices and the affect of unplanned Whiting outage as a consequence of distinctive climate situations. The oil buying and selling result’s anticipated to be weak,” BP went on to state.
Taking a look at “different gadgets” within the launch, BP stated the third quarter outcomes “are anticipated to incorporate post-tax adjusting gadgets referring to asset impairments within the vary of $0.2 to $0.5 billion, attributable throughout the segments”.
“This stuff are excluded from underlying alternative value revenue,” it added.
BP additionally talked about that “web debt on the finish of the third quarter is anticipated to be broadly flat in comparison with the top of the second quarter at round $26 billion together with the affect of the redemption of $1.2 billion perpetual hybrid bonds on 1 September as deliberate, greater earnings taxes paid of round $1 billion and a working capital launch”.
The corporate highlighted within the launch that, in its up to date third quarter steering, all impacts affect BP’s underlying RC revenue earlier than curiosity and tax, except acknowledged in any other case. It additionally identified that reported upstream manufacturing contains BP’s share of manufacturing of equity-accounted entities and that realizations within the gasoline and low carbon vitality section and the oil manufacturing and operations section are primarily based on gross sales by consolidated subsidiaries solely. It added that this excludes equity-accounted entities.
BP acknowledged in its launch that the buying and selling assertion supplies a abstract of BP’s present estimates and expectations for the third quarter of 2025, together with information on the financial setting in addition to group efficiency in the course of the interval. The corporate added that the data offered is just not complete of all elements which can affect BP’s group outcomes for the third quarter of 2025 and highlighted that it isn’t an estimate of these outcomes.
“All data supplied is topic to the finalization of BP’s monetary reporting processes and precise outcomes could range,” the corporate stated within the launch, which revealed that BP’s group outcomes for the third quarter are anticipated to be printed on November 4.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
