In a report despatched to Rigzone by the Goldman Sachs staff on Monday, Goldman Sachs analysts revealed that they see the Brent oil value falling to underneath $40 per barrel underneath one state of affairs.
“In a extra excessive and fewer possible state of affairs with each a world GDP slowdown and a full unwind of OPEC cuts, which might self-discipline non-OPEC provide, we estimate that Brent would fall underneath $40 in late 2025,” the analysts warned within the report.
That is one in all 4 “draw back value situations”, the Goldman Sachs analysts highlighted within the report. The analysts outlined that, underneath their base case, they anticipate Brent to common $63 per barrel within the the rest of 2025 and $58 per barrel in 2026.
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“Our base case assumes that one, the U.S. avoids recession and two, OPEC+ provide rises solely modestly,” the Goldman Sachs analysts stated within the report.
The analysts went on to warn within the report that dangers to their oil value forecast are largely to the draw back.
Outlining one other draw back value state of affairs within the report, the analysts stated, “assuming a typical U.S. recession shock and our OPEC baseline, we estimate that Brent would common $61/53 in Bal25/Cal26, respectively”.
“In a world GDP slowdown state of affairs and holding our OPEC baseline unchanged, we estimate that Brent would common $58/47 in Bal25/Cal26. We estimate the same value path assuming our GDP baseline and a full unwind of the two.2 million barrels per day of OPEC8+ cuts,” they added within the report, outlining one other draw back state of affairs.
“We additionally see some draw back dangers to grease costs from a probably bigger rise in OECD business shares even underneath our supply-demand baseline,” the analysts went on to state within the report.
“Particularly, OECD shares might rise extra if floating storage – which tends to construct on engaging storage incentives in contango markets – or China inventories (maybe on fears about weak demand or on a slowdown in strategic restocking) have been to rise lower than our base case,” they added.
The Goldman Sachs analysts additionally highlighted one “upside value state of affairs” within the report.
“Oil costs could also be larger than our forecast underneath a pointy de-escalating pivot in U.S. commerce coverage,” the analysts famous.
“If world GDP have been to appreciate in step with our mid-March expectations – fairly an optimistic state of affairs – and holding our OPEC baseline, we estimate that Brent would common $67/64 in Bal25/Cal26,” they added.
Goldman Sachs’ report outlined that the corporate’s base state of affairs sees the Brent spot value averaging $66 per barrel in 2025 and $58 per barrel in 2026. The Brent spot value is predicted to return in at $65 per barrel within the second quarter of this 12 months, $63 per barrel within the third quarter, $62 per barrel within the fourth quarter, $61 per barrel within the first quarter of 2026, $59 per barrel within the second quarter, $57 per barrel within the third quarter, and $56 per barrel within the fourth quarter, the report highlighted.
The report additionally outlined that the corporate’s base case sees the Brent Futures value averaging $63 per barrel throughout 2025 and 2026. Goldman Sachs expects the Brent Futures value to common $64 per barrel within the second quarter of this 12 months, $63 per barrel within the third quarter, $62 per barrel throughout the fourth quarter of 2025 and first quarter of 2026, and $63 per barrel throughout the second, third, and fourth quarters of subsequent 12 months, the report revealed.
Rigzone has contacted the White Home, OPEC, the State Council of the Individuals’s Republic of China, and the OECD for touch upon Goldman Sachs’ report. On the time of writing, not one of the above have responded to Rigzone.
In accordance with a BMI report despatched to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on Monday, BMI sees the Brent oil value averaging $68 per barrel in 2025 and $71 per barrel in 2026. A Bloomberg consensus included within the report projected that Brent will common $73 per barrel this 12 months and $71 per barrel subsequent 12 months. BMI highlighted within the report that it’s a contributor to the Bloomberg consensus.
A analysis notice despatched to Rigzone by Natasha Kaneva, Head of International Commodities Technique at J.P. Morgan, on April 14 confirmed that J.P. Morgan expects the common Brent value to return in at $66 per barrel in 2025 and $57 per barrel in 2026.
In its newest quick time period vitality outlook, which was launched on April 10, the U.S. Vitality Data Administration projected that the Brent spot value will common $67.87 per barrel in 2025 and $61.48 per barrel in 2026.
To contact the writer, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
