Fitch Options Nation Threat & Business Analysis revealed its newest Henry Hub value forecasts in a brand new report despatched to Rigzone this week.
The corporate now expects the commodity to common $3.6 per million British thermal items (MMBtu) in 2023, $3.8 per MMBtu in 2024, and $4.0 per MMBtu in each 2024 and 2025, in keeping with the report, which highlighted that the 2022 Henry Hub value got here in at $6.5 per MMBtu and the 2021 Henry Hub value was $3.7 per MMBtu.
The Bloomberg Consensus, which was included in Fitch Options’ report, projected that the commodity will hit $3.6 per MMBtu in 2023, $3.8 per MMBtu in 2024, $4.3 per MMBtu in 2025, and $3.8 per MMBtu in 2026.
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“Now we have made a considerable downward revision to our Henry Hub costs this quarter as we now anticipate [the] Henry Hub entrance month value annual common to return to historic ranges in 2023,” Fitch Options analysts acknowledged within the report.
“In our view, the costs will common at $3.6 per MMBtu in 2023, which marks a forty five p.c decline from $6.5 per MMBtu recorded final yr. The 2023 costs are set to return to 2021 degree as we see threat premia, which widened on the again of the Russian struggle in Ukraine in 2022, to normalize this yr,” the analysts added within the report.
“Nevertheless, we proceed to anticipate Henry Hub entrance month costs to stay elevated as in comparison with 2017-2020, as tightness on the worldwide LNG market will assist progress within the U.S. LNG exports, limiting gasoline provides to the home market. This can be a key pattern we anticipate to see within the medium-term when Henry Hub costs see progress on the again of accelerating U.S. LNG exports,” the analysts continued.
In a separate report despatched to Rigzone in September final yr, Fitch Options projected that the Henry Hub value would are available at $7.0 per MMBtu in 2022, $6.50 per MMBtu in 2023, $6.0 per MMBtu in 2024, $5.70 per MMBtu in 2025, and $5.45 per MMBtu in 2026.
The Bloomberg Consensus included in that report projected that the commodity can be valued at $6.50 per MMBtu in 2022, $5.90 per MMBtu in 2023, $4.50 per MMBtu in 2024, $4.10 per MMBtu in 2025, and $4.30 per MMBtu in 2026.
In a separate report despatched to Rigzone this week, Commonplace Chartered forecasted that the Henry Hub value can be $5.40 per MMBtu in 2023, $4.75 per MMBtu in 2024, and $4.80 per MMBtu in 2025. quarterly figures, the report projected that the commodity would are available at $5.40 per MMBtu within the second quarter of 2023, $5.0 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $5.20 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, and $4.80 per MMBtu within the first and second quarter of 2024.
On the time of writing, the Henry Hub value is buying and selling at $2.47 per MMBtu. The commodity’s peak 2023 shut, thus far, was seen on January 4 at $4.17 per MMBtu, and its lowest 2023 shut, thus far, was seen on February 21 at $2.07 per MMBtu.
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