The expiring September pure fuel contract rose 15.0 cents to roll off the board at $2.867 per million British thermal items (MMBtu) yesterday, sparking a aid rally throughout the NYMEX curve.
That’s what Eli Rubin, an power analyst at EBW Analytics Group, stated in a report despatched to Rigzone by the EBW staff on Thursday. Rubin added within the report, nevertheless, that “essentially … the near-term outlook stays mired in gentle climate and an anticipated surge within the storage surplus vs. five-year common above 200 billion cubic toes in early September”.
“Manufacturing readings retreated early this week, contributing to the case for upside, with Marcellus spot pricing suggestive of producers curbing provide on the margins. It’s unclear whether or not lately softer Permian output figures are sustainable, nevertheless,” Rubin famous within the report.
Rubin went on to state within the report that yesterday’s rally will increase the stakes for this morning’s U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) storage report.
“Consensus expectations counsel a 25-29 billion cubic toes injection,” Rubin stated.
“A second straight bullish EIA shock could prolong yesterday’s aid rally – however a bearish shock could quash nascent upside. Merchants might also be gradual to ascertain sizable short-term positions heading into the Labor Day vacation weekend,” he added.
The EIA’s newest weekly pure fuel storage report on the time of writing was launched on August 21 and included information for the week ending August 15. That report said that “working fuel in storage was 3,199 billion cubic toes as of Friday, August 15, 2025, based on EIA estimates”.
“This represents a web improve of 13 billion cubic toes from the earlier week. Shares have been 95 billion cubic toes lower than final 12 months presently and 174 billion cubic toes above the five-year common of three,025 billion cubic toes. At 3,199 billion cubic toes, complete working fuel is inside the five-year historic vary,” that report added.
The EIA’s subsequent weekly pure fuel storage report is scheduled to be launched on August 28. It’ll embrace information for the week ending August 22.
In a separate EBW report despatched to Rigzone by the EBW staff on Wednesday, Rubin highlighted that September contract pricing on Wednesday morning traded inside a penny of Friday’s shut “because the market try[ed]… to shake off the lack of 18 CDDs [Cooling Degree Days]”.
“Nonetheless, we observe 2025 contract expiries to this point averaged a 16.1 cent transfer as liquidity has thinned into remaining settlement,” he added.
Rubin famous in that report that “excessive climate weak spot is predominant – shedding 48 CDDs since August fifteenth – heading into the Labor Day vacation. Falling Northeast spot pricing is elevating the specter of price-induced provide curtailments – providing possibilities for sentiment to backside,” he continued.
The EBW power analyst went on to warn in that report that “fundamentals stay weak with a rebounding storage surplus to five-year norms compounded by September climate weak spot”.
“Tropical threats lurk. Nonetheless, hints of decrease manufacturing, robust LNG expectations, and possibilities for climate to enhance over the subsequent 30-45 days could lay the groundwork for storage surpluses to skinny into October and a NYMEX rebound in mid-to-late autumn,” he added.
The Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Nationwide Hurricane Heart is monitoring two climate disturbances within the Atlantic on its web site on the time of writing. Certainly one of these is post-tropical cyclone Fernand, which the NHC website confirmed had most sustained winds of 45 miles per hour as of 9am GMT on August 28.
The opposite is a disturbance within the japanese tropical Atlantic. This disturbance had a 20 p.c likelihood of cyclone formation in seven days as of 8am EDT on August 28, based on the NHC website.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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