Executives from oil and gasoline corporations have revealed the place they anticipate the Henry Hub pure gasoline value to be at numerous factors sooner or later within the first quarter Dallas Fed Power Survey, which was launched not too long ago.
The survey requested members what they anticipate Henry Hub pure gasoline costs to be in six months, one yr, two years, and 5 years. Executives from 110 oil and gasoline corporations answered this query and gave a imply response of $3.53 per million British thermal items (MMBtu) for the six month mark, $3.72 per MMBtu for the yr mark, $4.03 per MMBtu for the 2 yr mark, and $4.42 per MMBtu for the 5 yr mark, the survey confirmed.
Executives from 110 oil and gasoline corporations additionally answered this query within the fourth quarter 2025 Dallas Fed Power Survey and gave a imply response of $3.99 per MMBtu for the six month mark, $4.30 per MMBtu for the yr mark, $4.57 per MMBtu for the 2 yr mark, and $5.00 per MMBtu for the 5 yr mark, that survey confirmed.
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The newest Dallas Fed Power Survey additionally requested members what they anticipate the Henry Hub pure gasoline value to be on the finish of 2026. Executives from 128 oil and gasoline corporations answered this query and gave a median response of $3.60 per MMBtu, the survey highlighted. The low forecast was $2.30 per MMBtu, the excessive forecast was $5.25 per MMBtu, and the common each day spot value through the survey was $3.16 per MMBtu, the survey identified.
The fourth quarter Dallas Fed Power Survey was the primary Dallas Fed Power Survey which requested members what they anticipate the Henry Hub pure gasoline value to be on the finish of 2026. Executives from 124 oil and gasoline corporations answered the query and gave a median response of $4.19 per MMBtu, that survey highlighted. The low forecast was $1.75 per MMBtu, the excessive forecast was $6.50 per MMBtu, and the common each day spot value through the survey was $4.84 per MMBtu, the fourth quarter survey identified.
Volatility Dangers, Storage
In a pure gasoline centered EBW Analytics Group report despatched to Rigzone by the EBW staff on Friday, Eli Rubin, an vitality analyst on the firm, outlined that “volatility dangers” had been “elevated into April last settlement”.
“Yesterday’s [Thursday’s] April choices expiry session closed at $2.999 – slightly below the $3.00 per MMBtu threshold – and cooler climate throughout the Midwest is offsetting bearish fundamentals,” Rubin stated within the report.
“Within the fast time period, April last settlement might elevate volatility dangers, with the previous two years seeing last settlement periods swing a median 13.0 cents per MMBtu,” he added.
Rubin highlighted within the report that manufacturing readings had been “starting to get well after weak point” earlier within the week, including that “intramonth patterns typically favor positive aspects into the top of the calendar month”.
“Weekly LNG feedgas stays flat as seasonality, upkeep and facility inconsistency restrict upside. Each day heating demand might rise into the weekend earlier than slipping into Tuesday,” he stated.
Rubin went on to state within the report that, “essentially, the outlook of delicate climate, robust injections, and a rising storage surplus to exceed 100 billion cubic toes by mid-April stays intact to bias medium-term threat decrease”.
“Nevertheless, Iran struggle influences proceed to supply near-term assist for NYMEX gasoline costs,” he stated.
Within the report, EBW predicted a “volatility dangers rise” development for the NYMEX front-month pure gasoline contract value over the following 7-10 days and a “probably decrease” development over the following 30-45 days.
The U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) famous in its newest weekly pure gasoline storage report, which was launched on March 26 and included knowledge for the week ending March 20, that working gasoline in storage was 1,829 billion cubic toes as of Friday, based on its estimates.
“This represents a internet lower of 54 billion cubic toes from the earlier week,” the EIA stated within the report.
“Shares had been 90 billion cubic toes larger than final yr presently and 14 billion cubic toes above the five-year common of 1,815 billion cubic toes. At 1,829 billion cubic toes, complete working gasoline is inside the five-year historic vary,” it added.
To contact the creator, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
