The European Fee has set intermediate minimal filling ranges for member states’ underground gasoline storage (UGS) amenities subsequent yr towards the annual bloc goal of no less than 90 % by November.
The implementing regulation specifies targets, which fluctuate broadly throughout member states, by February 1, 2025; Might 1, 2025; July 1, 2025; and September 1, 2025.
By November 1, 2025, most member states together with high customers Germany, Italy and France are anticipated to have restocked no less than 90 % of their capability.
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The primary regulation, the EU Gasoline Storage Regulation of 2022, reduces obligations for member states that shouldn’t have gasoline interconnection with different European Union international locations or face technical difficulties in outsourcing their stockpiling obligations. In the meantime member states with massive amenities are allowed to solely replenish at 35 % of their common annual gasoline consumption over the earlier 5 years.
“Since its adoption in June 2022, the Gasoline Storage Regulation has performed an important function in making certain availability of adequate gasoline for the winter”, the Fee mentioned in a press release asserting the intermediate targets in 2025.
“Every year because the introduction of the Regulation in the course of the power disaster, the EU has exceeded its gasoline storage filling goal. This yr, storage was round 95 % by the deadline of 1 November. This quantities to about 100 bcm [3.53 trillion cubic feet] of gasoline in storage within the EU, representing round one-third of the EU’s annual gasoline consumption”.
Finish of Ukraine-Russia Transit
The EU is within the last countdown to the top of the transit settlement between the warring international locations of Ukraine and Russia, which has remained a key gasoline supply for the area regardless of EU efforts to speed up independence from Russian fossil fuels in response to the invasion. Russia accounted for 17 % of pipeline gasoline deliveries and 19 % of liquefied gasoline deliveries to the EU in the course of the second quarter of 2024, in keeping with the most recent quarterly gasoline market report of the European Fee.
Nevertheless, in keeping with the European Community for Transmission System Operators for Gasoline (ENTSOG), if provide from Russia through Ukraine ends this month as per the transit pact, the EU can meet its gasoline wants in subsequent yr’s winter through the use of the bloc’s storage amenities and rolling again consumption earlier than the height season.
Present ranges of UGS amenities throughout the EU and the addition of latest gasoline infrastructure together with liquefied pure gasoline (LNG) terminals give the area a fallback within the case of pipeline provide from Russia being reduce off, in keeping with an outlook report revealed by the trade group October 16, 2024.
“The excessive storage filling degree (59 %) at the start of the injection interval, decrease gasoline consumption over time and devoted measures launched by the Member States contributed to a excessive quantity of gasoline in storage at the start of the winter interval”, ENTSOG mentioned.
“The gasoline infrastructure, together with the tasks which have been commissioned throughout this yr and the expansions to be commissioned over the upcoming winter, are boosting power safety within the EU and permit for a extra environment friendly cooperation among the many EU Member States”.
For the following winter, even with restricted LNG availability, the EU can put together for the lack of pipeline gasoline from Russia by conserving no less than a 30 % storage degree on the finish of the present winter season. This might permit the EU to make use of the 2025 summer season to adequately restock for the winter that follows, in keeping with ENTSOG.
“Within the excessive demand instances (i.e.,2-week chilly spell and peak day demand within the Reference Winter state of affairs) no EU Member State is uncovered to the danger of demand curtailment”, it added.
Nevertheless, “[i]n case of full disruption of Russian pipeline provides throughout winter [October 2025 to March 2025, or the reference winter demand], further measures is perhaps wanted to save lots of enough volumes of gasoline for the top of the season, and to keep away from danger of demand curtailment in case of Chilly Winter and peak demand conditions”, ENTSOG mentioned.
“Simulation outcomes confirmed that the introduction of attainable measures, comparable to further provides, and a 15 % lower in gasoline demand, would keep away from demand curtailment dangers and permit for reaching an enough storage degree with none pipeline provides from Russia.
“Even in case of a full Russian pipeline provide disruption, cooperation between the international locations and demand measures might permit for a extra environment friendly injection in the course of the summer season 2025 in preparation for the following winter.
“To attain the 90 % UGS inventory degree goal by the top of summer season 2025, it’s obligatory to take care of gasoline at the start of the injection season (between 30 and 40 %) relying on the supply of LNG.
“Within the Low LNG provide eventualities, some demand response could also be obligatory to achieve the 90 % goal”.
“Extra UGS flexibility may very well be secured by storing further volumes in Ukrainian UGS underneath the situation that this gasoline will be injected and afterward withdrawn in the course of the winter season and market contributors can be keen to make use of it”, ENTSOG mentioned.
To contact the writer, e-mail jov.onsat@rigzone.com
