A simulation train has proven that present power safety measures within the European Union can successfully reply to the top of the Ukraine-Russia gasoline transit deal and potential “extreme” situations within the 2024–25 winter, in response to the European Fee.
For the primary time Ukraine, Moldova and the Power Group Secretariat participated within the train, which started 2022. This 12 months’s train additionally noticed participation from the European Community of Transmission System Operators for Fuel (ENTSOG) and the European Community of Transmission System Operators for Electrical energy.
“The train examined particularly the measures adopted and strengthened previously 2 years and analyzed the interactions between the gasoline and electrical energy sectors”, the Fee mentioned in a press release. The simulation examined in opposition to circumstances of “main provide disruptions”.
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“The train confirmed that the EU is properly ready and well-equipped when it comes to safety of gasoline provide to face probably the most extreme and unlikely situations”, the Fee declared.
“In all conditions, the capability of cooperation and coordination of the Fee and EU nations, with the assist of the European Community of Transmission System Operators for Fuel and together with with Moldova and Ukraine, proved efficient and important to the power safety of Europe”, the web assertion added.
Not too long ago pure gasoline transmission system operators (GTSOs) in Central and Southeastern Europe signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to work on harmonizing provide high quality necessities. The harmonization will assist the nations put together for the gradual abandonment of Russian gasoline, Fuel TSO of Ukraine LLC (GTSOU), one of many signatories, mentioned in a press release October 29.
The opposite signatories are Bulgaria’s Bulgartransgaz EAD, Greece’s DESFA SA, Hungary’s FGSZ Ltd., Greece-Bulgaria interconnector operator ICGB AD, North Macedonia’s Nomagas JSC Skopje, Croatia’s Plinacro Ltd., Slovenia’s d.o.o., Romania’s Transgaz SA and Moldova’s Vestmoldtransgaz SRL.
The Fee mentioned, “For the reason that first train in 2022, the EU has outfitted itself with strengthened laws and different measures, and EU nations have up to date their preventive motion plans and emergency plans to stop and handle gasoline crises, mitigating their affect”.
“The EU gasoline system has additionally developed because of new capacities, together with further LNG import terminals, whereas considerably lowering Russian gasoline imports”, the Fee added.
Fallback after Transit Ends
The expiry of the Ukraine-Russia gasoline transit pact subsequent month would go away Europe needing to reroute 7.2 billion cubic meters (254.27 billion cubic ft) of provide, in response to a Rystad Power evaluation printed July 16.
An evaluation by ENTSOG mentioned that even when provide from Russia by way of Ukraine ends, the EU can nonetheless meet its gasoline wants in subsequent 12 months’s winter by using the bloc’s storage amenities and rolling again consumption earlier than the height season.
Underground storage (UGS) amenities and new gasoline infrastructure together with liquefied pure gasoline (LNG) terminals within the EU give the area a fallback within the case of pipeline provide from Russia being reduce off, ENTSOG mentioned in an outlook report printed October 16.
The EU reached its storage goal for 2024 about 10 weeks forward of the deadline, in response to the web gasoline storage monitoring database of trade affiliation Fuel Infrastructure Europe. Final 12 months the EU additionally achieved its minimal required storage degree over two months forward of schedule. In June 2022, the EU handed a regulation mandating the area’s gasoline storage amenities be stuffed to at the least 90 p.c of capability by November 1 annually. This was in response to surges in power costs that adopted Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“On 1 October 2024, the EU’s UGS reached 94 p.c on common which interprets to 1,083 TWh [terawatt hours]”, ENTSOG mentioned within the report on its web site. “The excessive storage filling degree (59 p.c) at the start of the injection interval, decrease gasoline consumption through the years and devoted measures launched by the Member States contributed to a excessive quantity of gasoline in storage at the start of the winter interval.
“The gasoline infrastructure, together with the initiatives which have been commissioned throughout this 12 months and the expansions to be commissioned over the upcoming winter, are boosting power safety within the EU and permit for a extra environment friendly cooperation among the many EU Member States”.
For the following winter, even with restricted LNG availability, the EU can put together for the lack of pipeline gasoline from Russia by holding at the least a 30 p.c storage degree on the finish of the present winter season. This could permit the EU to make use of the 2025 summer season to adequately restock for the winter that follows, in response to ENTSOG.
“Within the excessive demand circumstances (i.e.,2-week chilly spell and peak day demand within the Reference Winter state of affairs) no EU Member State is uncovered to the chance of demand curtailment”, it added.
Nonetheless, “[i]n case of full disruption of Russian pipeline provides throughout winter [October 2025 to March 2025, or the reference winter demand], further measures is likely to be wanted to avoid wasting ample volumes of gasoline for the top of the season, and to keep away from threat of demand curtailment in case of Chilly Winter and peak demand conditions”, ENTSOG mentioned.
“Simulation outcomes confirmed that the introduction of potential measures, similar to further provides, and a 15 p.c lower in gasoline demand, would keep away from demand curtailment dangers and permit for reaching an ample storage degree with none pipeline provides from Russia.
“Even in case of a full Russian pipeline provide disruption, cooperation between the nations and demand measures may permit for a extra environment friendly injection in the course of the summer season 2025 in preparation for the following winter.
“To realize the 90 p.c UGS inventory degree goal by the top of summer season 2025, it’s mandatory to take care of gasoline at the start of the injection season (between 30 and 40 p.c) relying on the provision of LNG.
“Within the Low LNG provide situations, some demand response could also be mandatory to achieve the 90 p.c goal.
“EU UGS inventory ranges are significantly excessive on 1 October 2024 (94 p.c). Further UGS flexibility could possibly be secured by storing further volumes in Ukrainian UGS beneath the situation that this gasoline might be injected and in a while withdrawn in the course of the winter season and market individuals could be prepared to make use of it”.
‘Stabilized’
EU gasoline consumption within the second quarter totaled about 61 billion cubic meters (2.2 trillion cubic ft), down six p.c year-over-year on the decline of gasoline enter in energy vegetation. In comparison with the earlier quarter, demand dipped 45 p.c after the winter heating season ended, in response to the Fee’s quarterly gasoline market report printed October 24.
In a press release the Fee attributed the decrease demand to a decline in fossil fuel-fired electrical energy manufacturing, rising renewable technology and power financial savings. The Fee’s separate electrical energy market report confirmed that renewables accounted for 52 p.c of the ability combine, a brand new file after renewable sources overtook fossil fuels for the primary time final 12 months.
Fuel imports stood at practically 70 billion cubic meters (2.5 trillion cubic ft), down 9 p.c year-on-year and secure quarter-on-quarter. Pipeline deliveries accounted for 64 p.c, half of which got here from Norway with the remainder from North Africa (19 p.c), Russia (17 p.c) and Azerbaijan (seven p.c).
For LNG, the US remained the EU’s largest provider, accounting for 44 p.c. It was adopted by Russia at 19 p.c.
In comparison with 2021, the 12 months earlier than Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia’s whole share of EU gasoline imports within the second quarter of 2024 represents a 70 p.c decline, the report mentioned.
“The newest Fuel Market Report highlights that EU gasoline markets have stabilized, having adjusted to the structural modifications prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the associated gasoline provide disruptions, in addition to the measures launched to deal with the disaster”, the Fee mentioned.
To contact the creator, e mail jov.onsat@rigzone.com
