In a BMI report despatched to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on Monday, analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Options, projected that international oil demand “will put up regular progress” in 2026 “however stay beneath historic tendencies”.
“We forecast 2026 complete gasoline consumption to broaden by 1.0 %, a slight lower from the 1.1 % registered for 2025,” the BMI analysts famous within the report, which recognized “key” oil and fuel themes for subsequent 12 months.
“The expansion for 2026 will nonetheless see incremental demand of 1 million barrels per day for the 12 months,” the analysts added.
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Within the report, the BMI analysts mentioned the 2026 international oil demand forecast “marks the continuation of waning oil consumption progress seen within the post-Covid period with most progress attributed to Mainland China and rising markets (EMs)”.
“The U.S. will put up weaker progress in 2026 whereas different developed markets will see additional contraction in gasoline consumption,” they added.
The analysts revealed within the report that international gasoline consumption progress is forecast to proceed shrinking all through their 10-year forecast interval, “regardless of the power of good points in EMs”.
“India will take over as the most important marketplace for progress, including 237,000 barrels per day of extra demand, adopted by China with 165,000 barrels per day of progress in 2026,” they mentioned.
The BMI analysts went on to state within the report that the forecast for regular progress in gasoline demand is supported by their international financial outlook, which they mentioned “factors to a 12 months of regular good points in 2026, with forecast international GDP progress of two.6 %, unchanged from 2025”.
“Supportive financial and monetary insurance policies will bolster financial exercise, unlocking shopper and enterprise confidence. The stabilization of progress as commerce frictions ease, following on from the volatility and uncertainty seen in 2025, will buttress demand for oil,” they added.
“EMs will put up 3.9 % actual GDP progress, underpinning our view for these markets to be the principle driver of worldwide gasoline consumption progress in 2026,” they continued.
Additionally within the report, the BMI analysts projected that, subsequent 12 months, vitality costs “proceed to see draw back pressures as gentle demand and resilient provides outweigh geopolitical danger premia”.
“Our forecast for oversupply within the vitality market will see costs pressured decrease within the coming 12 months,” the BMI analysts acknowledged within the report.
“We’re sustaining our forecast for Brent to common $67 per barrel regardless of it being above consensus on account of stable macro-economic backdrop, regular demand outlook, and an anticipated flexibility from value delicate producers,” they added.
In a separate BMI report despatched to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on November 20, BMI projected that the entrance month Brent crude value will common $68.50 per barrel in 2025 and $67 per barrel in 2026. This report confirmed that the entrance month Brent crude value averaged $80.70 per barrel in 2024.
In a report despatched to Rigzone by the Morningstar group final week, Morningstar analysts mentioned they imagine oil demand “nonetheless has 5 to 10 years of first rate progress earlier than plateauing within the early 2030s”.
The Morningstar analysts acknowledged in that report that, on account of their demand outlook, they’ve not too long ago upgraded their midcycle oil value to $65 per barrel from $60.
“Over 2025 to 2034, we anticipate Brent oil costs to common $65 per barrel in inflation-adjusted phrases,” the analysts mentioned within the report.
“That is near the present Brent value at $63 as of November 2025, and a bit beneath the 2015-24 common actual Brent value of $76,” they added.
In its newest quick time period vitality outlook (STEO) on the time of writing, which was launched on November 12, the U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) projected that world petroleum and different liquid fuels consumption will common 104.14 million barrels per day in 2025 and 105.20 million barrels per day in 2026. That STEO confirmed that this demand stood at 103.09 million barrels per day in 2024.
The EIA projected in its newest STEO that the Brent spot common value will are available at $68.76 per barrel in 2025 and $54.92 per barrel in 2026.
To contact the creator, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
