James Davis, the Director of Brief-Time period World Oil Service & Head of Upstream Oil at FGE, revealed to Rigzone that FGE expects U.S. crude oil manufacturing to peak at “round 14 to 14.2 million barrels per day”.
“We imagine crude oil manufacturing within the U.S. is nearing its peak now, however the precise peak degree might not be seen till one other main upwards worth cycle, maybe later this decade,” Davis informed Rigzone.
In its newest brief time period power outlook (STEO), which was launched earlier this month, the U.S. Vitality Info Administration (EIA) forecast that U.S. crude oil manufacturing, together with lease condensate, would common 13.25 million barrels per day in 2024 and 13.67 million barrels per day in 2025. The September STEO put whole U.S. crude oil manufacturing at 12.93 million barrels per day final yr.
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The 2024 projection within the EIA’s newest STEO marked a slight improve in comparison with its earlier August STEO, the place the EIA forecast that U.S. crude oil manufacturing would common 13.23 million barrels per day this yr. The 2025 projection within the EIA’s September STEO marked a slight lower in comparison with the 2025 projection within the EIA’s August STEO, nevertheless. The August STEO put U.S. crude oil manufacturing at 13.69 million barrels per day in 2025.
In line with knowledge on the EIA web site, which exhibits yearly U.S. subject manufacturing of crude oil from the 1850s to 2023 and was final up to date on September 30, U.S. subject manufacturing of crude oil has by no means seen a yearly common of 13 million barrels per day or above. The closest it got here was in 2023, when it averaged 12.935 million barrels per day, the info outlined.
The second highest yearly common of U.S. subject manufacturing of crude oil was seen in 2019, at 12.314 million barrels per day, and the third highest yearly common was seen in 2022, at 11.992 million barrels per day, the info confirmed.
Knowledge on the EIA web site exhibiting month-to-month U.S. subject manufacturing of crude oil from January 1920 to July 2024, which was additionally final up to date on September 30, outlined that U.S. subject manufacturing of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day or extra in a month on 11 events.
December 2023 noticed the best month-to-month U.S. subject manufacturing of crude oil within the dataset, at 13.308 million barrels per day. The second highest determine was seen in November 2023, at 13.281 million barrels per day, and the third highest determine was seen in April 2024, at 13.249 million barrels per day, based on the info.
In its newest statistical assessment of world power, which was launched again in June this yr, the Vitality Institute (EI) confirmed that U.S. crude oil and condensate manufacturing got here in at 12.927 million barrels per day in 2023.
That determine marked an 8.5 % yr on yr improve and 15.6 % of worldwide crude oil and condensate manufacturing in 2023, based on the assessment, which outlined that, from 2013 to 2023, U.S. crude oil and condensate manufacturing has grown by a mean of 5.6 % yr on yr.
In line with its web site, FGE gives “main and impartial elementary evaluation, insights, knowledge and session on the oil, pure fuel, LNG, NGLs and new power markets to a big and various consumer base all over the world”.
The EIA describes itself because the statistical and analytical company inside the U.S. Division of Vitality. It collects, analyzes, and disseminates impartial and neutral power info to advertise sound policymaking, environment friendly markets, and public understanding of power and its interplay with the financial system and the setting, its web site notes.
The EI describes itself because the chartered skilled membership physique for individuals who work the world over of power. It states on its web site that its goal is “creating a greater power future for our members and society by accelerating a simply international power transition to web zero”.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
