In its newest brief time period power outlook (STEO), which was launched on November 6, the U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) elevated its U.S. crude oil manufacturing forecast for 2025 and 2026 however nonetheless projected a dip in output from this 12 months to subsequent 12 months.
Based on its November STEO, the EIA now sees U.S. crude oil output, together with lease condensate, averaging 13.59 million barrels per day general in 2025 and 13.58 million barrels per day in 2026. U.S. crude oil manufacturing, together with lease condensate, averaged 13.23 million barrels per day in 2024, the EIA’s November STEO confirmed.
The EIA sees U.S. crude oil output coming in at 13.82 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter of this 12 months, 13.67 million barrels per day within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, 13.60 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 13.47 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 13.57 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter, in keeping with its newest STEO.
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The EIA’s earlier STEO, which was launched in October, projected that U.S. crude oil manufacturing, together with lease condensate, would common 13.53 million barrels per day in 2025 and 13.51 million barrels per day in 2026.
In that STEO, the EIA forecast that manufacturing would are available at 13.66 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter of 2025, 13.62 million barrels per day within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, 13.53 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 13.40 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 13.48 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter.
In its September STEO, the EIA noticed U.S. crude oil manufacturing, together with lease condensate, averaging 13.44 million barrels per day general in 2025 and 13.30 million barrels per day in 2026.
That STEO projected that U.S. crude oil output would common 13.49 million barrels per day within the third quarter of this 12 months, 13.51 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter, 13.45 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2026, 13.39 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 13.20 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 13.17 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter of subsequent 12 months.
A knowledge web page on the EIA website displaying month-to-month U.S. discipline manufacturing of crude oil, which was final up to date on October 31 and which incorporates knowledge from January 1920 to August 2025, confirmed that month-to-month U.S. discipline manufacturing of crude oil averaged 13.794 million barrels per day in August.
This determine is the very best within the knowledge set, with the second highest determine coming in July, at 13.708 million barrels per day, and the third highest determine coming in June, at 13.610 million barrels per day.
A knowledge web page on the EIA website displaying annual U.S. discipline manufacturing of crude oil, which was additionally final up to date on October 31 and which incorporates knowledge from 1859 to 2024, confirmed that annual U.S. discipline manufacturing of crude oil averaged 13.235 million barrels per day in 2024. Previous to this, annual U.S. discipline manufacturing of crude oil had by no means averaged 13 million barrels per day or extra, the info revealed. The closest it got here to an annual common of 13 million barrels per day was in 2023, at 12.943 million barrels per day, the info confirmed.
Manufacturing Breakdown
The EIA’s newest STEO forecast that Decrease 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, will contribute 11.26 million barrels per day of the overall projected determine of U.S. crude oil manufacturing for 2025 and 11.13 million barrels per day of the overall projected determine for 2026.
The Federal Gulf of America is predicted to contribute 1.91 million barrels per day to this 12 months’s complete projected determine and 1.97 million barrels per day to subsequent 12 months’s complete projected determine, the STEO confirmed. Alaska is projected to contribute 0.42 million barrels per day to this 12 months’s anticipated complete determine and 0.48 million barrels per day to subsequent 12 months’s anticipated complete determine, the STEO revealed.
In its October STEO, the EIA noticed Decrease 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, contributing 11.22 million barrels per day of that STEO’s complete projected determine for 2025 and 11.10 million barrels per day of that STEO’s complete projected determine for 2026. The Federal Gulf of America was anticipated to contribute 1.89 million barrels per day to the 2025 complete projected determine and 1.96 million barrels per day to the 2026 complete projected determine, that STEO confirmed. Alaska was anticipated to contribute 0.42 million barrels per day to the 2025 anticipated complete determine and 0.45 million barrels per day to the 2026 anticipated complete determine, the October STEO revealed.
In its September STEO, the EIA forecast that Decrease 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, would contribute 11.18 million barrels per day of that STEO’s complete projected determine for 2025 and 10.96 million barrels per day of that STEO’s complete projected determine for 2026. The Federal Gulf of America was anticipated to contribute 1.84 million barrels per day to the 2025 complete projected determine and 1.90 million barrels per day to the 2026 complete projected determine, that STEO confirmed. Alaska was anticipated to contribute 0.43 million barrels per day to the 2025 anticipated complete determine and 0.44 million barrels per day to the 2026 anticipated complete determine, the EIA’s September STEO revealed.
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