In its newest quick time period power outlook (STEO), which was launched on December 9, the U.S. Power Data Administration (EIA) elevated its Brent worth forecast for 2025 and 2026 however nonetheless projected that the commodity will drop subsequent 12 months in comparison with 2025.
In keeping with its December STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot worth averaging $68.91 per barrel this 12 months and $55.08 per barrel subsequent 12 months. In its earlier STEO, which was launched in November, the EIA projected that the Brent spot worth would common $68.76 per barrel in 2025 and $54.92 per barrel in 2026. The EIA’s October STEO forecast that the commodity would common $68.64 per barrel this 12 months and $52.16 per barrel subsequent 12 months, and its September STEO noticed the commodity coming in at $67.80 per barrel in 2025 and $51.43 per barrel in 2026.
A quarterly breakdown included within the EIA’s newest STEO projected that the Brent spot worth will common $63.10 per barrel within the fourth quarter of this 12 months, $54.93 per barrel within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, $54.02 per barrel within the second quarter, $55.32 per barrel within the third quarter, and $56.00 per barrel within the fourth quarter of 2026. The commodity averaged $75.83 per barrel within the first quarter of this 12 months, $68.01 per barrel within the second quarter, and $69.00 per barrel within the third quarter, the EIA’s December STEO confirmed. It additionally identified that the Brent spot worth averaged $80.56 per barrel total final 12 months.
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In its December STEO, the EIA highlighted that the Brent crude oil spot worth averaged $64 per barrel in November, which it identified was $11 per barrel decrease than in November 2024.
“Crude oil costs proceed to fall as rising crude oil manufacturing outweighs the impact of elevated drone assaults on Russia’s oil infrastructure, and the newest sanctions on Russia’s oil sector,” the EIA mentioned in its newest STEO.
“We forecast that rising world oil manufacturing and decrease demand over the winter will speed up the buildup of oil inventories, leading to additional crude oil worth declines within the coming months,” the EIA warned.
“We forecast that the Brent worth will drop to a mean of $55 per barrel within the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26) and can keep close to that worth for the remainder of the 12 months,” it added.
Within the STEO, the EIA famous that sturdy world oil manufacturing progress has outpaced consumption in latest months. It outlined that this development “dr[ove]…” their “evaluation that world oil inventories have risen shortly within the second half of 2025”.
“In 2026, we count on manufacturing and consumption to develop at related charges, however manufacturing ranges will proceed to exceed consumption, additional including to inventories,” the EIA mentioned in its December STEO.
The EIA projected in its newest STEO that world oil stock builds will exceed two million barrels per day in 2026, which it mentioned “is just like this 12 months’s improve”.
“Persistent stock builds may fill business storage choices on land, which can immediate market individuals to more and more search different, costlier choices for storing crude oil, reminiscent of floating storage,” the EIA warned within the STEO.
“In consequence, a few of the crude oil worth declines will doubtless mirror the upper marginal price of storage,” it added.
The EIA went on to state in its December STEO that, though it expects costs to fall in 2026, it assessed that each OPEC+ coverage and China’s continued stock builds will restrict declines.
“Given our expectation of considerable world oil stock builds, we forecast OPEC+ will produce about 1.3 million barrels per day lower than focused manufacturing in 2026,” the EIA mentioned within the STEO.
“On November 30, OPEC+ reaffirmed plans to maintain manufacturing flat within the first quarter, however left open the potential for future changes,” it identified.
“A big portion of oil stock builds this 12 months have been in strategic stockpiles in China, which has restricted downward worth pressures. We count on that China will proceed constructing strategic stockpiles into 2026,” the EIA continued.
Rigzone has contacted the Division of Data and Press of the Russian Ministry of Overseas Affairs, the Ministry of Power of the Russian Federation, OPEC, the State Council of the Folks’s Republic of China and the State Council Data Workplace, and the Worldwide Press Heart of China’s Ministry of Overseas Affairs for touch upon the EIA’s STEO. On the time of writing, not one of the above have responded to Rigzone.
To contact the creator, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
