The U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) projected that the U.S. pure fuel Henry Hub spot value will drop this 12 months and rise subsequent 12 months in its newest brief time period power outlook (STEO).
Within the EIA’s January STEO, which was launched on January 13 and accomplished its forecast on January 8, the EIA forecast that the commodity will common $3.46 per million British thermal items (MMBtu) in 2026 and $4.59 per MMBtu in 2027. The U.S. pure fuel Henry Hub spot value averaged $3.53 per MMBtu in 2025, the EIA’s newest STEO confirmed.
In keeping with a quarterly breakdown included in its newest STEO, the EIA sees the U.S. pure fuel Henry Hub spot value coming in at $3.38 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2026, $2.75 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.42 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $4.28 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $4.78 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2027, $4.30 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.43 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.84 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of subsequent 12 months.
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Final 12 months, the Henry Hub spot value averaged $4.15 per MMBtu within the first quarter, $3.19 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.03 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $3.75 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, the EIA’s January STEO confirmed.
“On an annual foundation, U.S. pure fuel costs are comparatively flat in 2026 earlier than rising in 2027 as market circumstances tighten,” the EIA mentioned in its newest STEO.
“We count on the Henry Hub pure fuel spot value will common just below $3.50 per million British thermal items (MMBtu) this 12 months, a two % lower from 2025, after which rise by 33 % in 2027 to an annual common of virtually $4.60 per MMBtu,” it added.
In its STEO, the EIA famous that the Henry Hub spot value picks up in 2027 as demand progress outpaces provide progress.
“Increasing U.S. liquified pure fuel (LNG) export capability and better pure fuel consumption within the electrical energy sector contribute to stronger demand in 2027, pushing storage inventories under the five-year (2021-2025) common and putting upward strain on costs,” the EIA mentioned.
“near-term developments for this winter” in its January STEO, the EIA highlighted that it had lowered its Henry Hub value forecast for the primary quarter of 2026 to a median of $3.38 per MMBtu from $4.35 per MMBtu final month.
“Our forecast assumes January temperatures might be milder than regular, which can seemingly restrict pure fuel consumption throughout the time of 12 months when demand for area heating sometimes reaches its annual peak,” the EIA mentioned in its STEO.
“Expectations of much less pure fuel demand have brought about costs to drop sharply. The Henry Hub spot was under $3 per MMBtu on January 9, down from round $5 per MMBtu a month earlier,” it added.
In a media advisory despatched to Rigzone by the AccuWeather workforce on January 20, AccuWeather warned {that a} “main winter storm” was anticipated to convey “harmful ice and snow impacts to greater than 150 million individuals throughout greater than two dozen states beginning Friday and thru the weekend”.
In a press release despatched to Rigzone by the AccuWeather workforce on Sunday, AccuWeather warned of a “multibillion greenback winter storm catastrophe” within the Unites States.
“The quickly increasing impacts from freezing rain, ice, heavy snow, and harmful chilly are growing the danger of life-threatening emergencies in areas with out energy and warmth as an enormous winter storm spreads throughout the nation,” AccuWeather mentioned in that assertion.
“Greater than 200 million individuals throughout the U.S. are being impacted by the winter storm,” it added.
In an unique interview with Rigzone on Monday, Ole R. Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), highlighted a “huge rise” in U.S. pure fuel costs on Monday, which he mentioned was “primarily pushed by climate threat and thus tightening short-term balances, therefore a continuation of the market actions we witnessed final week”.
Hvalbye highlighted within the interview that “climate has re-entered the equation in power”, noting that “forecasts present a broad chilly spell throughout giant components of the U.S., notably the Midwest and East, with temperatures as little as 10 levels under the 30-year regular for the top of this week”.
“That has materially lifted heating demand expectations at a time when the market is already delicate,” he added.
“That is clearly mirrored in Henry Hub, which has jumped to a different degree, and is now buying and selling round $6.2 per MMBtu [million British thermal units], up greater than 100% from … [around] $3 per MMBtu on January 16”, he continued.
To contact the creator, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
