In its newest brief time period power outlook (STEO), the U.S. Vitality Info Administration (EIA) famous that “reductions within the circulate of liquified pure gasoline (LNG) by the Strait of Hormuz have brought on pure gasoline costs in Europe and Asia to extend” however added that it expects U.S. pure gasoline costs “to be comparatively unaffected by this improvement”.
The EIA outlined within the STEO, which was launched on March 10, that LNG export amenities “have been already working at a excessive degree of utilization previous to the Center East battle, limiting the flexibility to export further volumes within the close to time period”.
“A lot of the flexibility in exports will likely be within the ramp-up at Corpus Christi State 3 (Prepare 5), which was accomplished in February and at Golden Cross Prepare 1, which is about to come back on-line this month,” the EIA added.
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In its newest STEO, the EIA projected that the U.S. pure gasoline Henry Hub spot worth will common $3.76 per million British thermal models (MMBtu) in 2026 and $3.85 per MMBtu in 2027.
A quarterly breakdown included within the EIA’s newest STEO confirmed that the EIA sees the commodity coming in at $4.79 per MMBtu within the first quarter of this yr, $3.10 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.33 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $3.82 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $4.14 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2027, $3.52 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.69 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.04 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of 2027.
In its earlier STEO, which was launched in February, the EIA noticed the U.S. pure gasoline Henry Hub spot worth averaging $4.31 per MMBtu in 2026 and $4.38 per MMBtu in 2027.
A quarterly breakdown included in that STEO confirmed that the EIA noticed the commodity coming in at $5.48 per MMBtu within the first quarter of this yr, $3.61 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.86 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $4.29 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $4.70 per MMBtu within the first quarter of subsequent yr, $4.12 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.18 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.51 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of 2027.
“In our forecast, the Henry Hub spot worth averages nearly $3.80 per million British thermal models in 2026, or 13 % lower than our forecast final month,” the EIA stated in its newest STEO.
“We lowered our forecast for costs this yr largely due to milder than anticipated climate in February, which led to extra pure gasoline in storage within the coming months in our forecast,” the EIA added.
“We anticipate costs will rise to about $3.90 per MMBtu on common subsequent yr, or 12 % lower than our forecast final month,” it continued.
“Decrease costs in 2027 replicate increased pure gasoline manufacturing than in our earlier forecast, which raises our expectations of pure gasoline inventories subsequent yr,” the EIA went on to state.
Gasoline Manufacturing, Storage
In its March STEO, the EIA famous that marketed pure gasoline manufacturing within the Decrease 48 states reached a document excessive in November at 118.5 billion cubic ft per day (Bcfpd).
“We estimate manufacturing will common 117.8 Bcfpd this winter (November-March), which is 2 % greater than our October STEO forecast,” the EIA highlighted within the STEO.
“The elevated manufacturing, stemming primarily from elevated related gasoline manufacturing from the Permian and the remainder of the U.S. Decrease 48 states areas, offset the short-term drop in manufacturing throughout Winter Storm Fern,” it added.
The EIA famous in its STEO that, in February, manufacturing “almost recovered after the three.6 Bcfpd lower in January”, which it stated was “concentrated within the Appalachia area (-1.3 Bcfpd) and Permian area (-1.3 Bcfpd)”.
“We anticipate marketed pure gasoline manufacturing to rise by our forecast interval, averaging 118 Bcfpd in 2026 and 121 Bcfpd in 2027, relative to 116 Bcfpd in 2025,” the EIA outlined in its report.
“We anticipate the expansion in pure gasoline manufacturing to originate from the Haynesville, Permian, and Appalachia areas. Elevated oil costs will drive extra oil-directed drilling within the Permian, which can contribute to better volumes of related pure gasoline manufacturing,” it added.
The EIA went on to state in its March STEO that it expects U.S. pure gasoline inventories to finish the winter season at 1,840 billion cubic ft, “148 Bcf decrease than forecasted heading into the winter season in our October 2025 STEO however much like the five-year (2021–2025) common”.
In January, pure gasoline shares dropped to 2,493 Bcf, in accordance with the EIA’s March STEO, which famous that this mirrored the “historic withdrawals in response to Winter Storm Fern”.
“Primarily based on knowledge from the Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the 2025–2026 winter season (November-March) could have two % extra heating diploma days (HDDs) than the 10-year common and 4 % extra HDDs in contrast with the October 2025 STEO forecast,” the EIA stated in its STEO.
“Though now we have had colder climate that has contributed to document excessive spot costs, manufacturing was increased than anticipated all through the winter, which helped dampen the impact of January’s massive storage withdrawals, retaining storage ranges near or above common by the winter,” it added.
“We now anticipate pure gasoline inventories will finish the withdrawal season close to the five-year common, whereas in October, we forecast shares would finish the season eight % above common,” it continued.
Different Value Projections
In a BMI report despatched to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on Thursday, BMI analysts projected that the entrance month Henry Hub pure gasoline worth will common $3.90 per MMBtu in 2026 and $4.00 per MMBtu in 2027.
A Normal Chartered report despatched to Rigzone on Wednesday forecast that the NYMEX foundation close by future U.S. pure gasoline Henry Hub worth will common $4.025 per MMBtu this yr and $4.400 per MMBtu subsequent yr.
To contact the writer, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
