The U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) projected that the U.S. common gasoline and U.S. on-highway diesel gasoline retail value will drop each in 2025 and 2026 in its newest brief time period power outlook (STEO).
In response to this STEO, which was launched on November 12, the EIA sees the U.S. common gasoline retail value averaging $3.10 per gallon this 12 months and $2.98 per gallon subsequent 12 months. The U.S. common gasoline retail value averaged $3.31 per gallon in 2024, the EIA’s November STEO confirmed.
The U.S. on-highway diesel gasoline retail value is projected to common $3.66 per gallon in 2025 and $3.50 per gallon in 2026 within the EIA’s November STEO. In 2024, the U.S. on-highway diesel gasoline retail value averaged $3.76 per gallon, the EIA’s newest STEO highlighted.
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A quarterly breakdown included within the EIA’s newest STEO forecast that the U.S. common gasoline retail value will are available in at $3.02 per gallon within the fourth quarter of 2025, $2.88 per gallon within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, $3.04 per gallon within the second quarter, $3.09 per gallon within the third quarter, and $2.91 per gallon within the fourth quarter. The U.S. common gasoline retail value averaged $3.10 per gallon within the first quarter of 2025, $3.16 per gallon within the second quarter, and $3.14 within the third quarter, the EIA’s November STEO confirmed.
One other quarterly breakdown included within the EIA’s newest STEO projected that the U.S. on-highway diesel gasoline retail value will common $3.69 per gallon within the fourth quarter of 2025, $3.59 per gallon within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, $3.41 per gallon within the second quarter, $3.47 per gallon within the third quarter, and $3.54 per gallon within the fourth quarter. The U.S. on-highway diesel gasoline retail value averaged $3.63 per gallon within the first quarter of 2025, $3.55 per gallon within the second quarter, and $3.76 per gallon within the third quarter, the EIA’s November STEO confirmed.
“Decrease crude oil costs will proceed to push down retail gasoline and diesel costs in the USA in 2026,” the EIA stated in its newest STEO.
“We forecast the typical U.S. retail gasoline value to stay close to $3.00 per gallon for the rest of 2025, leading to a mean 2025 value of $3.10 per gallon, a six % lower from 2024,” it added.
“In 2026, we forecast the typical retail gasoline value to fall by 4 % to only underneath $3.00 per gallon, which might be the bottom annual common value since 2020. We forecast the U.S. retail diesel value will common nearly $3.70 per gallon in 2025, down three % from 2024,” it continued.
“Diesel costs are forecast to fall by one other 4 % in 2026. As with gasoline, decrease diesel costs are primarily a results of decrease crude oil costs,” it went on to notice.
In its November STEO, the EIA highlighted that it expects the Brent crude oil value will common $69 per barrel this 12 months and $55 per barrel subsequent 12 months. It identified within the STEO that this value averaged $81 per barrel final 12 months.
“Crude oil is the biggest part of retail gasoline and diesel costs, usually accounting for about half of the entire value per gallon,” the EIA stated in its newest STEO.
“As crude oil costs fall, the portion of retail gasoline costs attributable to crude oil additionally falls. For retail gasoline, crude oil is predicted to make up 53 % of the value in 2025 and 44 % in 2026,” it added.
“Equally, for diesel, crude oil’s contribution to the retail value is forecast to be 45 % in 2025 and 37 % in 2026. If the 2026 forecast for diesel is realized, it could be the bottom crude oil contribution to retail diesel costs since 1998,” the EIA continued.
The EIA went on to state in its STEO, nonetheless, that “falling crude oil costs don’t result in a proportional drop in costs on the pump as a result of the impact of decrease crude oil prices is partly offset by rising crack spreads”.
“A crack unfold is the distinction between wholesale petroleum product costs and crude oil costs, broadly serving as a measure of refiners’ revenue margins. Rising crack spreads can dampen the affect of falling crude oil costs for customers,” the EIA famous.
“We forecast diesel crack spreads to rise from a mean of $0.52 per gallon in 2024 to $0.69 per gallon in 2025, reaching $0.84 per gallon in 2026. Within the gasoline market, we equally forecast sturdy crack unfold positive aspects for 2025 and 2026,” the EIA added.
In response to the AAA Gas Costs web site, the typical value of standard gasoline within the U.S. is $2.998 per gallon, as of December 2. Yesterday’s common was $3.001 per gallon, the week in the past common was $3.055 per gallon, the month in the past common was $3.036 per gallon, and the 12 months in the past common was $3.047 per gallon, the location outlined.
The AAA Gas Costs web site confirmed that the typical U.S. diesel value was $3.739 per gallon on December 2. Yesterday’s common was additionally $3.739 per gallon, the week in the past common was $3.785 per gallon, the month in the past common was $3.684 per gallon, and the 12 months in the past common was $3.536 per gallon, the AAA Gas Costs web site highlighted.
To contact the creator, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
