In its newest quick time period power outlook (STEO), which was launched on February 10, the U.S. Power Data Administration (EIA) projected that the common Brent spot worth will drop in 2026 and 2027.
In response to this STEO, the EIA sees the Brent spot worth coming in at $57.69 per barrel in 2026 and $53.00 per barrel in 2027. The Brent spot worth averaged $69.04 per barrel in 2025, the STEO confirmed.
A quarterly breakdown included within the EIA’s newest STEO confirmed that the group expects the Brent spot worth to come back in at $64.44 per barrel within the first quarter of this yr, $57.32 per barrel within the second quarter, $55.35 per barrel within the third quarter, $54.00 per barrel within the fourth quarter, and $53.00 per barrel throughout the primary, second, third, and fourth quarters of subsequent yr.
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Within the STEO, the EIA highlighted that the Brent crude oil spot worth averaged $67 per barrel in January, which it identified was $4 per barrel increased than the common in December. The EIA famous that each day Brent crude oil costs elevated from a mean of $62 per barrel on January 2 to $72 per barrel on January 30.
“Crude oil costs rose in response to disruptions to crude oil manufacturing in america and Kazakhstan,” the EIA highlighted within the STEO.
“Regardless of the near-term improve in costs and short-term disruptions to grease provide, we forecast that robust progress in international oil manufacturing will end in excessive international oil stock builds over the forecast, inflicting crude oil costs to fall,” it added.
“We forecast that Brent spot costs will common $58 per barrel in 2026 and $53 per barrel in 2027, down from a mean of $69 per barrel in 2025,” it continued.
In its STEO, the EIA mentioned markets additionally responded to questions over current U.S. coverage motion towards Iran, “with oil costs not too long ago buying and selling increased and with better volatility”.
“Crude oil manufacturing in Iran has remained secure thus far. We assume it’ll stay secure over our forecast however acknowledge that actions concentrating on oil infrastructure or a battle that impacts flows by Strait of Hormuz may clearly scale back Center East oil manufacturing and exports,” the EIA acknowledged.
The EIA went on to notice in its February STEO that, though it expects costs to fall in 2026 and stay below $60 per barrel in 2027, it assesses that each OPEC+ coverage and China’s continued strategic stock builds “will restrict declines”.
“A big portion of oil stock builds final yr had been in strategic stockpiles in China, which restricted downward worth pressures as a result of these builds acted as a supply of demand,” the EIA mentioned.
“We assume that China will proceed constructing strategic stockpiles at practically the identical fee of about 1.0 million barrels per day in 2026, earlier than lowering strategic builds in 2027,” it added.
“On February 1, OPEC+ reaffirmed plans to maintain manufacturing flat within the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26). Regardless of no plans to announce 2027 targets till 4Q26, we don’t anticipate OPEC+ will improve manufacturing subsequent yr given our expectation of huge stock builds over the forecast interval,” the EIA continued.
The EIA additionally acknowledged in its STEO that the evolving state of affairs in Venezuela stays a key uncertainty in its forecast.
In a geopolitical replace report despatched to Rigzone by the Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) staff on Tuesday, SEB Chief EM Strategist Erik Meyersson highlighted that oil markets “stay tense”.
“Brent oil costs have risen from $60 per barrel at the beginning of the yr to $69.3 per barrel,” he added within the report.
To contact the creator, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
