World petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing will outweigh consumption by 2.24 million barrels per day in 2025.
That’s in line with the U.S. Power Data Administration’s (EIA) newest brief time period vitality outlook (STEO), which projected that international petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing and consumption will common 106.18 million barrels per day and 103.94 million barrels per day, respectively, this yr.
A quarterly breakdown included within the EIA’s December STEO confirmed that manufacturing averaged 103.62 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2025, 105.17 million barrels per day within the second quarter, and 107.85 million barrels per day within the third quarter. It forecasts that output will common 108.00 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter.
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One other quarterly breakdown within the EIA’s newest STEO highlighted that consumption got here in at 102.30 million barrels per day within the first quarter of this yr, 103.96 million barrels per day within the second quarter, and 104.78 million barrels per day within the third quarter. This STEO projected that demand will common 104.66 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter.
Taking a look at 2026, the EIA’s December STEO projected that international petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing will outweigh demand by 2.26 million barrels per day. The STEO forecasted that manufacturing and demand will common 107.43 million barrels per day and 105.17 million barrels per day, respectively, subsequent yr.
In its December STEO, the EIA projected that manufacturing will common 106.50 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2026, 107.25 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 107.87 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 108.06 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter.
This STEO forecasted that consumption will are available at 103.71 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2026, 105.20 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 106.03 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 105.70 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter.
“Forecast international liquid fuels consumption will increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026,” the EIA famous in its December STEO.
“International liquid fuels consumption progress is pushed virtually fully by non-OECD nations. Most non-OECD progress is concentrated in Asia,” it added.
“We forecast complete liquid fuels consumption in China will increase by 250,000 barrels per day in 2025 and by an extra 300,000 barrels per day in 2026. We raised our forecast of 2026 oil consumption in China by 50,000 barrels per day from final month’s STEO as a result of upward revisions to anticipated GDP progress,” it continued.
“We anticipate India will improve its liquid fuels consumption by 70,000 barrels per day this yr and 170,000 barrels per day subsequent yr,” it went on to state.
The EIA famous in its December STEO that the Center East “can also be a big supply of non-OECD demand progress, growing by 170,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 100,000 barrels per day in 2026”.
“We forecast complete liquid fuels consumption in Africa will increase by 240,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 150,000 barrels per day in 2026, led by sturdy progress in Sub-Saharan Africa,” it added.
The EIA went on to spotlight in its newest STEO that international liquid fuels manufacturing in its forecast “will increase by 3.0 million barrels per day in 2025 and by greater than 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026”.
“Together with OPEC+, the USA, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada drive manufacturing progress within the forecast,” the EIA famous.
“Collectively these 4 nations contribute greater than 50 % (1.5 million barrels per day) of complete international progress this yr and about 60 % (0.8 million barrels per day) in 2026,” it added.
“Manufacturing in South America has been the main supply of progress in 2025 as new offshore vessels have began up forward of schedule in Brazil and Guyana, with extra tasks nonetheless in growth,” it continued.
The EIA’s December STEO highlights that the world petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing figures embody crude oil, lease condensate, pure gasoline plant liquids, different liquids, refinery processing acquire, and different unaccounted-for liquids.
“Variations within the reported historic manufacturing information throughout nations might end in some inconsistencies within the delineation between crude oil and different liquid fuels,” the EIA identified within the STEO.
In a observe on the consumption figures, the EIA’s STEO said that consumption of petroleum by the OECD nations is identical as ‘petroleum product equipped’, outlined within the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Provide Month-to-month (DOE/EIA-0109).
“Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD nations is ‘obvious consumption’, which incorporates inside consumption, refinery gasoline and loss, and bunkering,” the EIA highlighted within the STEO.
To contact the writer, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
