In its newest quick time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched on December 9, the U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) elevated its Henry Hub spot value forecast for 2025.
Based on this STEO, the EIA now expects the commodity to common $3.56 per million British thermal items (MMBtu) this 12 months. In its earlier STEO, which was launched in November, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot value would common $3.47 per MMBtu in 2025.
The EIA’s newest STEO confirmed that the commodity averaged $4.15 per MMBtu within the first quarter of this 12 months, $3.19 per MMBtu within the second quarter, and $3.03 per MMBtu within the third quarter. It forecasts that the Henry Hub spot value will are available in at $3.87 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
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For 2026, the EIA barely decreased its Henry Hub spot value forecast, projecting that the commodity will common $4.01 per MMBtu subsequent 12 months. In its earlier STEO, the EIA noticed the commodity averaging $4.02 per MMBtu in 2026.
A quarterly breakdown included within the EIA’s newest STEO projected that the Henry Hub spot value will common $4.35 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2026, $3.32 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.91 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.48 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
“An early December chilly snap is placing upward strain on pure gasoline costs,” the EIA stated in its newest STEO.
“The Henry Hub spot value in our forecast averages round $4.30 per MMBtu this winter heating season (November-March), 22 % greater than final winter,” it added.
“We raised our forecast for costs this winter by greater than 40 cents per MMBtu on common in contrast with final month’s STEO, largely as a result of early December has been colder than we assumed in final month’s STEO, main us to boost our estimate of pure gasoline used for area heating,” it continued.
“Primarily based on information from the Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we assume December can have eight % extra heating diploma days (HDDs) than the 10-year common, and 7 % extra HDDs than we assumed in final month’s forecast,” it famous.
“Due to the colder climate, we now forecast the residential and industrial sectors will devour six % extra pure gasoline in December than we forecast final month, lowering the quantity of pure gasoline held in storage,” the EIA went on to state.
In its December STEO, the EIA famous that the U.S. entered the winter heating season with 4 % extra working pure gasoline in storage than the earlier five-year (2020-2024) common.
“We count on stock withdrawals will probably be 580 billion cubic toes (Bcf) this December, 28 % greater than the five-year common withdrawal for the month,” the EIA stated in its STEO.
“We forecast U.S. pure gasoline shares will finish the winter at 2,000 Bcf, 9 % above the five-year common,” they added.
The EIA additionally said in its newest STEO that rising manufacturing helps average pure gasoline costs subsequent 12 months.
“We count on the Henry Hub spot value to common nearly $4.50 per MMBtu in 4Q26, down 5 % from final month’s forecast,” the EIA stated.
“U.S dry pure gasoline manufacturing in our forecast averages 109 billion cubic toes per day (Bcfpd) in 2026, up one % from this 12 months,” it added.
“We raised our forecast for U.S. pure gasoline manufacturing in contrast with the November STEO after we up to date our assumptions about pure gas-to-oil ratios (GORs),” it famous.
“Particularly, we raised our expectations of GORs within the Permian area primarily based on latest manufacturing developments, resulting in extra general pure gasoline manufacturing in our forecast for 2026,” the EIA went on to state.
In a report despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis workforce on December 12, J.P. Morgan projected that the U.S. pure gasoline Henry Hub value will common $3.59 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.74 per MMBtu in 2026.
On this report, J.P. Morgan forecasted that the commodity will are available in at $3.45 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of 2025, $3.85 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2026, $3.35 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.60 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.15 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of subsequent 12 months.
A Normal Chartered report dated December 10, which was despatched to Rigzone by the Normal Chartered workforce not too long ago, confirmed that the corporate anticipated the NYMEX foundation Henry Hub U.S. pure gasoline close by future value to common $3.550 per MMBtu this 12 months and $4.025 per MMBtu subsequent 12 months.
In that report, Normal Chartered forecasted that the commodity will common $3.800 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of 2025, $4.200 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2026, $3.600 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.800 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.500 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
To contact the writer, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
