U.S. dry pure gasoline manufacturing fell from a month-to-month report of 106 billion cubic ft per day (Bcfpd) in December 2023 to 102 Bcfpd in January 2024, the U.S. Power Data Administration (EIA) estimated in its newest brief time period vitality outlook (STEO).
The EIA outlined within the STEO that it had made this evaluation “due to disruptions in mid-January associated to chilly climate throughout the central United States”. The January common was three billion cubic ft per day decrease than the IEA had forecast in final month’s STEO, the group highlighted within the report. It projected in its newest STEO that U.S. pure gasoline manufacturing will enhance in February and attain 105 Bcfpd by March, “because the weather-related disruptions subside”.
In its February STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. dry pure gasoline output will common 104.4 Bcfpd in 2024 and 106.5 Bcfpd in 2025. The group forecast within the STEO that this manufacturing will are available at 103.5 Bcfpd within the first quarter of 2024, 105 Bcfpd within the second quarter, 104.4 Bcfpd within the third quarter, 104.7 Bcfpd within the fourth quarter, 105.5 Bcfpd within the first quarter of 2025, 106.7 Bcfpd within the second quarter, 106.5 Bcfpd within the third quarter, and 107.2 Bcfpd within the fourth quarter. The EIA’s February STEO pegged common U.S. dry pure gasoline manufacturing at 103.8 Bcfpd in 2023.
In its earlier STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. dry pure gasoline output would common 105 Bcfpd in 2024 and 106.4 Bcfpd in 2025. That STEO forecast that manufacturing would common in at 105.1 Bcfpd within the first quarter of 2024, 105 Bcfpd within the second quarter, 104.6 Bcfpd within the third quarter, 105.5 Bcfpd within the fourth quarter, 106.6 Bcfpd within the first quarter of 2025, 106.7 Bcfpd within the second quarter, 106.1 Bcfpd within the third quarter, and 106.2 Bcfpd within the fourth quarter.
In a gasoline and LNG market replace despatched to Rigzone final week, Rystad Power Senior Analyst Masanori Odaka revealed that the corporate’s estimate for February U.S. dry gasoline manufacturing “is that it’s going to common 103.7 Bcfpd, up 0.59 % month on month, as manufacturing is predicted to get well following Winter Storm Heather in mid-January”.
“Temperatures have been gentle within the early days of February, indicating home consumption is more likely to stay tepid,” Odaka added within the replace.
“Nevertheless, the 15-day forecast picked up three heating diploma days (HDDs) not too long ago, which gives some bullish sentiment,” Odaka continued.
Henry Hub Worth
In its February STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot worth will common $2.65 per million British thermal models (MMBTU) in 2024 and $2.94 per MMBtu in 2025.
The EIA forecast that the commodity will common $2.67 per MMBtu within the first quarter of this yr, $2.20 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $2.66 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $2.66 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $3.08 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $2.95 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025, $2.64 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $2.98 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $3.20 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
The Henry Hub spot worth averaged $2.54 per MMBtu in 2023, the EIA’s February STEO revealed.
“The Henry Hub spot worth averaged $3.18 per MMBtu in January – nonetheless, spot costs had been risky, rising sharply to $13.20 per MMBtu on Friday January 12 in anticipation of severely chilly climate for the approaching weekend,” the IEA stated in its newest STEO.
“After the weekend, costs shortly fell and continued to lower till January 23, when the value hit the month-to-month low of $2.15 per MMBtu,” it added.
“We forecast that gentle climate for the rest of 1Q24 will maintain the common Henry Hub spot worth close to $2.40 per MMBtu throughout February and March. However volatility might return if severely chilly climate emerges, even for a brief interval,” the EIA went on to state.
The EIA’s January STEO forecast that the Henry Hub spot worth would common $2.66 per MMBtu in 2024 and $2.95 per MMBtu in 2025.
In Rystad’s market replace, Odaka highlighted that Henry Hub costs for February supply expired on February 5 at $2.49 per MMBtu, including that the “prompt-month contract for March rolled over nearer to $2 per MMBtu on 6-7 February”.
“The market continues to expertise volatility because of the oversupply scenario and a scarcity of demand upside catalysts,” Odaka stated within the replace.
In a report despatched to Rigzone final month, BMI, a Fitch Options firm, projected that the Henry Hub worth would common $3.4 per MMBtu in 2024 and $3.6 per MMBtu in 2025.
In a report despatched to Rigzone final week, Normal Chartered projected that the NYMEX foundation Henry Hub worth would are available at $4.80 per MMBtu within the first and second quarters of this yr, and at $4.70 per MMBtu within the third and fourth quarters. The group forecast within the report that the commodity would common $4.80 per MMBtu in 2025.
To contact the writer, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com