The U.S. Vitality Info Administration (EIA) has raised each its 2025 and 2026 common Brent crude oil spot worth forecasts in a brief time period vitality outlook (STEO) for the primary time in 2025.
In its newest STEO, which was launched on October 7, the EIA projected that the Brent crude spot worth will common $68.64 per barrel in 2025 and $52.16 per barrel in 2026. The EIA predicted in its October STEO that the Brent spot worth will are available at $62.05 per barrel within the fourth quarter of this 12 months, $51.97 per barrel within the first quarter of 2026, $51.67 per barrel within the second quarter, $52.00 per barrel within the third quarter, and $53.00 per barrel within the fourth quarter.
The EIA projected that the Brent spot worth would common $67.80 per barrel in 2025 and $51.43 per barrel in 2026 in its September STEO, $67.22 per barrel in 2025 and $51.43 per barrel in 2026 in its August STEO, $68.89 per barrel in 2025 and $58.48 per barrel in 2026 in its July STEO, $65.97 per barrel in 2025 and $59.24 per barrel in 2026 in its June STEO, $65.85 per barrel in 2025 and $59.24 per barrel in 2026 in its Could STEO, $67.87 per barrel in 2025 and $61.48 per barrel in 2026 in its April STEO, $74.22 per barrel in 2025 and $68.47 per barrel in 2026 in its March STEO, $74.50 per barrel in 2025 and $66.46 per barrel in 2026 in its February STEO, and $74.31 per barrel in 2025 and $66.46 per barrel in 2026 in its January STEO.
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“Brent crude oil spot costs averaged $68 per barrel in September, unchanged from the common in August,” the EIA famous in its October STEO.
“We forecast that rising international oil provide and the transition away from peak summer time seasonal demand will result in important development in international oil inventories over the forecast, inflicting crude oil costs to fall within the coming months,” the EIA warned.
“We forecast that oil costs will fall to a median of $62 per barrel within the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25) and $52 per barrel within the first half of 2026 (1H26). We anticipate stock builds will common 2.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 4Q25 and can stay elevated via 2026, placing important downward stress on oil costs,” the EIA continued.
“World oil costs have remained steady in latest months regardless of international oil stock builds – which we estimate because the distinction between international oil provide and demand – averaging an estimated 1.9 million barrels per day from Could via September,” the EIA went on to notice in its STEO.
A number of components have doubtless offset robust development in provide to maintain costs comparatively steady, the EIA said in its newest STEO.
“One doubtless issue is China’s additions to its oil stockpiles,” the EIA stated.
“China doesn’t report information on its oil inventories. Nonetheless, based mostly on imports, exports, refining information, and oil stock information from third-party and official sources, we assess that China has amassed important oil inventories this 12 months,” it added.
“As a result of China’s stock builds have been strategic in nature, they’ve probably acted as a supply of demand, limiting downward worth pressures greater than our estimated balances would in any other case recommend,” it famous.
The EIA said in its October STEO that it’s also potential that international oil demand was increased over the summer time than it at present estimates.
“The lag in precise oil demand information, significantly outdoors of the OECD, implies that our estimates for international demand for 2Q25 and 3Q25 are nonetheless a mixture of mannequin outcomes and preliminary information observations for a lot of the world,” the EIA highlighted within the STEO.
The EIA went on to notice within the STEO that stock builds in its forecast are important even with its expectation that OPEC+ will produce under its targets within the coming months.
“Together with robust manufacturing development amongst non-OPEC nations, the forecast enhance in international oil inventories relies on the OPEC+ bulletins to extend the group’s oil manufacturing,” the EIA stated within the STEO.
“OPEC+ started growing manufacturing in April 2025, and for a lot of this 12 months, the group’s manufacturing has been near its targets. Final month, the group elevated manufacturing targets via October 2025, however there may be uncertainty concerning some members’ skill to achieve the targets given near-term limits on spare capability,” it added.
“We accomplished modeling and evaluation for this forecast earlier than the October 5 OPEC+ announcement that the group would enhance manufacturing targets for November 2025,” it continued.
The EIA revealed in its October STEO that it forecasts that international oil inventories will enhance by a median of two.1 million barrels per day in 2026, “in contrast with a median annual enhance of 1.9 million barrels per day this 12 months”.
“Stock builds will probably be highest in 1Q26, averaging greater than 2.7 million barrels per day. Robust stock builds may fill business storage choices on land, which might immediate market members to hunt different, costlier choices for storing crude oil, akin to floating storage,” it added.
“In consequence, among the crude oil worth declines will doubtless replicate the upper marginal value of storage. We forecast that stock builds will average later in 2026 resulting from a mix of upper international oil demand and barely decrease oil manufacturing development, each in response to decrease oil costs,” the EIA continued.
The EIA warned in its newest STEO that the tempo at which China continues to buy oil to fill stock is a key uncertainty in its forecast.
“If China’s builds proceed on the tempo estimated in latest months, crude oil costs could possibly be increased than in our forecast,” the EIA identified.
“Nonetheless, a slowdown in China’s purchases of oil slated for stock would doubtless put downward stress on oil costs as extra oil begins to indicate up in seen oil stock information,” it added.
The EIA additionally warned in its October STEO that different components additionally contribute to important uncertainty in its worth forecast.
“Though we don’t forecast any main provide disruptions, dangers to grease provide stay,” the EIA highlighted within the STEO.
“As well as, ongoing commerce negotiations and authorized challenges associated to tariffs between the USA and its buying and selling companions may have an effect on financial and oil demand development, with implications for oil costs,” it added.
“Lastly, given the expectations of great oversupply starting later this 12 months, OPEC+ may revisit its plans for elevated manufacturing, easing downward stress on oil costs,” it continued.
To contact the writer, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
