The U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) revealed its newest U.S. crude oil manufacturing forecasts in its January quick time period power outlook (STEO), which was printed on January 14 and accomplished its forecast on January 9.
In that STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil manufacturing, together with lease condensate, will common 13.55 million barrels per day in 2025 and 13.62 million barrels per day in 2026. The EIA’s earlier STEO, which was printed in December, forecast that U.S. crude oil manufacturing would common 13.52 million barrels per day in 2025. The EIA’s December STEO didn’t embody a U.S. crude oil manufacturing forecast for 2026.
In its newest STEO, the EIA projected that Decrease 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, will make up 11.32 million barrels per day of the 2025 complete. The Federal Gulf of Mexico was projected to make up 1.82 million barrels per day and Alaska was anticipated to contribute 0.41 million barrels per day of the 2025 complete, the STEO confirmed.
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In 2026, Decrease 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, will make up 11.42 million barrels per day of that 12 months’s complete, in line with the STEO. The Federal Gulf of Mexico will contribute 1.80 million barrels per day and Alaska will contribute 0.40 million barrels per day of the 2026 complete, the STEO outlined.
The EIA’s December STEO projected that Decrease 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, would make up 11.31 million barrels per day of the 2025 complete. It forecast that the Federal Gulf of Mexico would contribute 1.81 million barrels per day and Alaska would contribute 0.41 million barrels per day of the 2025 complete.
A quarterly breakdown included within the EIA’s January STEO projected that U.S. crude oil output will are available in at 13.41 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2025, 13.54 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 13.56 million barrels per day within the third quarter, 13.67 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter, 13.63 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2026, 13.67 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 13.61 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 13.59 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s December STEO forecast that U.S. crude oil manufacturing would common 13.45 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2025, 13.51 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 13.55 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 13.58 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter.
“We forecast continued growing U.S. crude oil manufacturing in 2025 and 2026,” the EIA mentioned in its January STEO.
“In 2026, manufacturing development begins to gradual as drilling and completion exercise is lowered in response to sustained decrease crude oil costs and producers prioritizing worth per barrel over manufacturing quantity,” it added.
“We estimate U.S. crude oil manufacturing set a report of 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024. We anticipate U.S. producers will proceed to provide extra crude oil in each 2025 and 2026, however we anticipate manufacturing development to gradual notably in 2026,” it went on to state.
In its January STEO, the EIA mentioned it forecasts the Permian area would be the largest supply of U.S. manufacturing development in 2025 and 2026, “and the one main supply of manufacturing development in 2026”.
“Permian manufacturing will rise almost 300,000 barrels per day in each years, averaging 6.6 million barrels per day in 2025 and 6.9 million barrels per day in 2026,” the EIA famous in its January STEO.
“Our forecast for continued enhance in manufacturing within the Permian area is supported by bettering nicely productiveness and added pipeline takeaway capability,” it added.
“We anticipate newly drilled wells within the Permian area will turn out to be extra productive as producers proceed to implement new know-how and higher drilling practices. We additionally anticipate manufacturing from mature wells to stay comparatively secure, with solely gentle reductions in output,” it continued.
Areas outdoors of the Permian see a slowdown in manufacturing development, the EIA said within the STEO.
“Manufacturing outdoors of the Permian area within the Decrease 48 states will stay flat in 2025, and we forecast it should lower by about 170,000 barrels per day (4 p.c) in 2026,” it added.
“The declines in different areas are due to lowered drilling and completion exercise, partly in response to decrease crude oil costs. As well as, regional nicely productiveness, takeaway capability, and entry to worldwide markets are extra restricted in different areas than within the Permian,” it famous.
The EIA went on to spotlight within the STEO that it forecasts that crude oil manufacturing within the Gulf of Mexico will enhance to 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, “and stay close to that quantity in 2026”.
“In contrast with onshore tight oil manufacturing, Gulf of Mexico manufacturing is characterised by tasks with longer lead occasions, and it’s pushed by a number of large-scale tasks which can be much less delicate to short-term variations in crude oil costs,” the EIA mentioned in its January STEO.
To contact the writer, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
