In its newest quick time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched on October 7, the U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) confirmed that world petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing outweighed consumption within the first, second, and third quarters of this yr.
In line with the STEO, within the third quarter, manufacturing averaged 107.43 million barrels per day and consumption averaged 104.83 million barrels per day. Within the second quarter, manufacturing got here in at 105.06 million barrels per day and consumption was 104.05 million barrels per day, and within the first quarter, manufacturing averaged 103.62 million barrels per day and consumption was 102.33 million barrels per day, the STEO highlighted.
The final time consumption got here in greater than demand was within the third quarter of 2024, in response to the STEO, which confirmed that, in that quarter, manufacturing averaged 103.09 million barrels per day and consumption averaged 103.45 million barrels per day.
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Within the first quarter of final yr, manufacturing was 102.60 million barrels per day and consumption was 101.79 million barrels per day, within the second quarter of 2024 manufacturing was 103.23 million barrels per day and consumption was 102.93 million barrels per day, and within the fourth quarter of final yr manufacturing was 103.83 million barrels per day and consumption was 103.46 million barrels per day, the STEO confirmed.
Trying forward, the STEO projected that manufacturing will common 107.31 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter of this yr. The EIA forecast within the STEO that consumption will are available in at 104.72 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter.
In its newest STEO, the EIA projected that manufacturing will common 106.39 million barrels per day within the first quarter of subsequent yr, 106.97 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 107.55 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 107.77 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter. The EIA expects consumption to common 103.64 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2026, 105.11 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 105.95 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 105.70 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter, in response to its newest STEO.
“The deliberate will increase to OPEC+ manufacturing and powerful provide development outdoors of the group proceed to drive international liquid fuels manufacturing development in our forecast,” the EIA mentioned in its newest STEO.
“Forecast international liquid fuels manufacturing will increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and by one other 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. We count on international locations outdoors of OPEC+ to guide our forecast complete liquids manufacturing development,” the EIA added.
“Manufacturing from these international locations rises by 2.0 million barrels per day in 2025, 0.3 million barrels per day greater than in final month’s STEO, and by 0.7 million barrels per day in 2026,” it continued.
The EIA highlighted in its STEO that “forecast international liquid fuels consumption will increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in each forecast years”.
“International liquid fuels consumption development is pushed nearly totally by non-OECD international locations, which develop by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.0 million barrels per day in 2026, whereas OECD consumption falls by 0.1 million barrels per day in 2025 earlier than rising by 0.1 million barrels per day in 2026,” the EIA added in its October STEO.
“Most of non-OECD development is concentrated in Asia, with liquid fuels consumption in India and China including greater than 0.4 million barrels per day of consumption by 2026 in contrast with 2024,” the EIA famous.
“Our demand forecast for China solely contains closing consumption and doesn’t embody stock builds,” it continued.
In its STEO, the EIA highlighted that its world petroleum and different liquid gasoline manufacturing figures embody “crude oil, lease condensate, pure fuel plant liquids, different liquids, refinery processing achieve, and different unaccounted-for liquids”.
“Variations within the reported historic manufacturing knowledge throughout international locations might end in some inconsistencies within the delineation between crude oil and different liquid fuels,” the EIA added within the STEO.
In a be aware referring to its world petroleum and different liquid fuels consumption figures, the EIA mentioned within the STEO that “consumption of petroleum by the OECD international locations is identical as ‘petroleum product equipped’, outlined within the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Provide Month-to-month (DOE/EIA-0109)”.
“Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD international locations is ‘obvious consumption’, which incorporates inner consumption, refinery gasoline and loss, and bunkering,” the EIA added.
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