The U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) lowered its Henry Hub spot value forecasts for this yr and subsequent yr in its newest brief time period power outlook (STEO), which was launched this week.
In its newest STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot value will common $2.30 per million British thermal models (MMBtu) in 2024 and $3.27 per MMBtu in 2025. In its earlier July STEO, the EIA forecast that the Henry Hub spot value would common $2.49 per MMBtu this yr and $3.29 per MMBtu subsequent yr.
The EIA expects the Henry Hub spot value to common $2.20 per MMBtu within the third quarter of 2024, $2.78 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $3.23 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025, $3.04 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.38 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $3.43 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, in keeping with the August STEO.
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In its July STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot value would common $2.64 per MMBtu within the third quarter of this yr, $3.09 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $3.27 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025, $3.07 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.39 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $3.42 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
“Following a extremely popular July throughout a lot of the US, we anticipate barely milder climate in August will cut back pure gasoline consumption,” the EIA famous in its newest STEO.
“We forecast pure gasoline consumed to generate electrical energy technology will common 46 billion cubic ft per day in August, down two p.c from July. Dry pure gasoline manufacturing in our forecast for August stays near its stage in July,” it added.
“Due to falling consumption and flat manufacturing, we anticipate the Henry Hub value to remain comparatively low, remaining under $2.50 per MMBtu via October. Nonetheless, we anticipate seasonal will increase in consumption for house heating, together with a ramp up in liquefied pure gasoline (LNG) exports from new amenities in Texas and Louisiana, will push the Henry Hub value to common about $3.10 per MMBtu from November via March,” it continued.
In its July STEO, the EIA highlighted that pure gasoline costs fell in early 2024 “due to delicate winter climate that lowered demand for pure gasoline for house heating”.
The Henry Hub spot value averaged $2.13 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2024 and $2.09 per MMBtu within the second quarter, in keeping with the EIA’s August STEO. The Henry Hub spot value averaged $2.54 per MMBtu in 2023, the STEO confirmed.
A report despatched to Rigzone by Customary Chartered Financial institution Commodities Analysis Head Paul Horsnell late Tuesday confirmed that the corporate is forecasting that the NYMEX foundation Henry Hub Louisiana close by future value will common $4.70 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $4.80 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025, $4.70 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $5.00 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.80 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
A analysis notice despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis workforce final Friday confirmed that J.P. Morgan expects the Henry Hub value to common $2.45 per MMBtu in 2024 and $3.70 per MMBtu in 2025.
The corporate expects the commodity to common $2.20 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $3.25 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $3.75 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025, $3.30 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.75 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.00 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, in keeping with the analysis notice.
In a report despatched to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on July 26, BMI projected that the Henry Hub value will common $2.80 per MMBtu this yr and $3.60 per MMBtu subsequent yr.
To contact the creator, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
