In an EBW Analytics Group report despatched to Rigzone by the EBW group at present, Eli Rubin, an power analyst on the firm, mentioned EBW’s seasonal elementary evaluation signifies NYMEX gasoline pricing is dropping right into a extra sustainable vary for the 2025 injection season.
“Nevertheless, present pricing will not be pushed by fundamentals,” Rubin highlighted within the report.
“The near-term carnage will finish when the pressured promoting of speculator longs stops – a catalyst troublesome to pinpoint upfront,” Rubin added.
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“The Might contract 200-day easy transferring common at $3.20 per million British thermal items (MMBtu) could provide extra sturdy assist,” Rubin continued.
Within the report, Rubin famous that, after the Might pure gasoline contract rose to $3.783 yesterday morning, “the rout in pure gasoline prolonged to shut beneath the 100-day transferring common at $3.511 because the mass unwinding of the biggest speculator web lengthy place in three years continued”.
Quick-term fundamentals counsel a speedy drop in late-season heating demand over the following 7-10 days, in line with Rubin.
“Pipeline upkeep is disrupting manufacturing, nonetheless – significantly within the Permian,” Rubin identified within the report.
“Structurally, early-cycle Plaquemines LNG feedgas nominations counsel one other small scale LNG practice addition forward of schedule in a modest bullish indicator,” Rubin added.
In one other EBW report despatched to Rigzone by the EBW group yesterday, Rubin mentioned “steadiness of Cal 2025 pure gasoline contracts plummeted 21.7 cents yesterday [Monday] because the unwinding of the biggest bullish speculator positioning in three years continued”.
“The 52 cent plunge in two periods follows the ensnaring of pure gasoline within the macroeconomic tariff hurricane,” Rubin added.
“Whereas promoting is more likely to cease when pressured deleveraging of longs ends, yesterday’s [Monday’s] buying and selling spanned a 33.9 cent intraday vary – and uncertainty could proceed,” Rubin warned.
In that report, the EBW power analyst highlighted that Henry Hub spot costs averaged $3.96 on Monday.
“Day by day demand could peak at present [Tuesday] at eight billion cubic toes per day above regular. Early-cycle manufacturing readings are down sharply as a result of upkeep. LNG feedgas stays sturdy. The present storage week could function the primary bullish EIA report since early March,” Rubin mentioned.
“Whereas near-term pure gasoline provide and demand could also be much less affected by tariffs, the deleveraging in NYMEX futures realigns costs with mushy seasonal fundamentals,” Rubin added.
“Ultimately, although, the sell-off throughout the NYMEX strip could precede a resurgence in pure gasoline futures subsequent winter and in Cal 2026,” Rubin continued.
Rigzone has contacted the White Home for touch upon this EBW report. On the time of writing, the White Home has not responded to Rigzone.
A Customary Chartered Financial institution report despatched to Rigzone by Paul Horsnell, the corporate’s commodities analysis head, late Tuesday confirmed that Customary Chartered Financial institution expects the NYMEX foundation close by future Henry Hub U.S. pure gasoline value to common $3.50 per MMBtu throughout the second and third quarters of 2025 and $3.20 per MMBtu throughout the fourth quarter of this yr and first quarter of subsequent yr.
The financial institution sees the commodity coming in at $3.70 per MMBtu within the second quarter of 2026 and $3.50 per MMBtu within the third quarter, in line with the report, which outlined that the financial institution expects the NYMEX foundation close by future Henry Hub U.S. pure gasoline value to common $3.35 per MMBtu general in 2025, $3.30 general in 2026, and $2.90 per MMBtu general in 2027.
A analysis observe despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis group on Friday outlined that J.P. Morgan anticipated the U.S. pure gasoline Henry Hub value to common $3.53 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.23 per MMBtu in 2026. J.P. Morgan projected that the commodity would common $3.55 per MMBtu within the first quarter of this yr, $3.75 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.45 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $3.35 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, the analysis observe confirmed.
To contact the creator, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
