A BMI report despatched to Rigzone by the Fitch Group lately revealed BMI’s newest Henry Hub fuel value forecasts out to 2028.
The report confirmed that BMI, a unit of Fitch Options, expects the Henry Hub value to common $2.4 per million British thermal models (MMBtu) in 2024, $3.4 per MMBtu in 2025, $3.8 per MMBtu in 2026 and 2027, and $4.0 per MMBtu in 2028.
A Bloomberg consensus included in that report projected that the commodity will common $2.6 per MMBtu this 12 months, $3.5 per MMBtu subsequent 12 months, $3.7 per MMBtu in 2026, and $4.0 per MMBtu throughout 2027 and 2028.
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A BMI report despatched to Rigzone again in June confirmed that BMI anticipated the Henry Hub value to common $2.80 per MMBtu in 2024 and $3.60 per MMBtu in 2025.
One other BMI report despatched to Rigzone again in April confirmed that the corporate projected the commodity to common $2.80 per MMBtu this 12 months, $3.60 per MMBtu subsequent 12 months, $3.8 per MMBtu throughout 2026 and 2027, and $4.0 per MMBtu in 2028.
A Bloomberg consensus included in that report forecast that the Henry Hub value would common $2.7 per MMBtu this 12 months, $3.6 per MMBtu subsequent 12 months, $3.7 per MMBtu in 2026, and $3.8 per MMBtu throughout 2027 and 2028.
In a BMI report despatched to Rigzone again in February, BMI projected that the Henry Hub value would common $3.4 per MMBtu in 2024 and $3.6 per MMBtu in 2025.
“Extended weak spot within the U.S. pure fuel market knowledgeable our additional downward revision to our 2024 Henry Hub entrance month forecast,” BMI analysts stated within the firm’s newest report.
“We presently anticipate fuel costs to common at $2.4 per MMBtu in 2024, which marks a 15 p.c discount in comparison with our earlier forecast,” they added.
“Though Henry Hub costs noticed some restoration in June, the market weak spot returned in July, which leaves the 12 months up to now Henry Hub value at $2.2 per MMBtu as of mid-August 2024,” they continued.
“Decrease than anticipated 12 months up to now ranges for nearly eight months assist our view of decrease annual common costs than we initially anticipated. Consequently, the 2024 common Henry Hub value is predicted to linger 11 p.c beneath 2023 common,” the analysts went on to state.
Within the newest BMI report, BMI analysts stated they maintain the view that costs will recuperate within the the rest of the 12 months, “averaging at $2.7 per MMBtu for mid-August to December”.
“There … [are] quite a few components supporting our view, with the anticipated progress in demand from the LNG sector taking precedence,” they acknowledged.
“Rising seasonal demand for heating from residential customers and upstream manufacturing curtailments will even assist value restoration later this 12 months,” the analysts added.
“Though we anticipate costs to strengthen within the remaining months of 2024, we notice quite a few components which is able to restrict the uptick, specifically the wholesome storage ranges,” they continued.
Additionally within the report, the BMI analysts highlighted geopolitical dangers, which they stated represent a considerable upside threat to their forecast.
“We notice the continued Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast in Russia which raised the danger of a fuel move disruption,” they warned.
“That stated, we maintain to our view that the fuel provide from Russia is unlikely to be disrupted amid the incursion. On prime of that, wholesome storage ranges in Europe and a gradual move from Norway would act as a buffer within the case of any disruption,” they added.
“We additionally spotlight lingering threat of battle escalation within the Center East which may result in a disruption of LNG flows, elevating international fuel costs,” they went on to state.
The U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) lowered its Henry Hub spot value forecasts for this 12 months and subsequent 12 months in its newest quick time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched earlier this month.
In its newest STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot value will common $2.30 per MMBtu in 2024 and $3.27 per MMBtu in 2025. In its earlier July STEO, the EIA forecast that the Henry Hub spot value would common $2.49 per MMBtu this 12 months and $3.29 per MMBtu subsequent 12 months.
A report despatched to Rigzone on August 13 by Customary Chartered Financial institution Commodities Analysis Head Paul Horsnell confirmed that the financial institution projected that the NYMEX foundation Henry Hub Louisiana U.S. pure fuel close by future value will common $2.70 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of 2024, $3.20 per MMBtu within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, $3.50 per MMBtu throughout the second and third quarters, and $2.80 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
To contact the creator, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
