In a BMI report despatched to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on Thursday, BMI projected that the Henry Hub value will common $3.2 per million British thermal items (MMBtu) in 2025, $3.6 per MMBtu in 2026, $3.8 per MMBtu in 2027, and $4 per MMBtu throughout 2028 and 2029.
A Bloomberg consensus included within the report forecast that the commodity will common $3.7 per MMBtu this yr, $3.9 per MMBtu subsequent yr, $4.1 per MMBtu in 2027, $3.9 per MMBtu in 2028, and $4 per MMBtu in 2029.
In a BMI report despatched to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on February 10, BMI projected that the Henry Hub value would common $3.4 per MMBtu in 2025, $3.8 per MMBtu throughout 2026 and 2027, and $4 per MMBtu throughout 2028 and 2029.
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A Bloomberg consensus included in that report forecast that the commodity would are available in at $3.4 per MMBtu in 2025, $3.7 per MMBtu in 2026, $3.8 per MMBtu in 2027, and $4 per MMBtu in 2028. That Bloomberg consensus didn’t embrace a Henry Hub value projection for 2029.
“Because of the fast pure gasoline stockpile construct and a looser basic outlook we’ve revised our 2025 Henry Hub annual common value forecast to $3.2 per MMBtu, 5.9 % decrease than our earlier forecast,” BMI analysts acknowledged within the BMI report despatched to Rigzone on Thursday.
“U.S. pure gasoline costs are down 21.7 % for the reason that begin of the yr, as tender demand to finish the heating season faces continued manufacturing development,” they added.
Within the report, BMI analysts stated an early finish to the heating season noticed pure gasoline in storage construct by the center of March, “a number of weeks sooner than historic developments”.
“This led to a pointy drop in Henry Hub costs since then, falling by 28 % to $2.95 per MMBtu. This comes regardless of the U.S. consumption rising by 5.1 % in January over the identical month in 2024,” the analysts added.
“U.S. pure gasoline exports proceed to current upside dangers to costs with month-to-month LNG and pipeline exports each rising in January 2025 regardless of the earlier quarter registering a yr on yr decline,” they continued.
“Nevertheless, headwinds for pure gasoline costs are mounting as U.S. commerce coverage threatens to stymie financial development and vitality consumption in 2025. The sturdy value positive factors seen over Q1 2025 ought to nonetheless help annual value positive factors of 33 % in 2025 over 2024,” the BMI analysts went on to notice.
Rigzone has contacted the White Home, the U.S. Division of Vitality (DOE), and the American Petroleum Institute (API) for touch upon BMI’s report. On the time of writing, not one of the above have responded to Rigzone.
A report despatched to Rigzone by Customary Chartered Financial institution Commodities Analysis Head Paul Horsnell on Tuesday confirmed that Customary Chartered sees the NYMEX foundation close by future Henry Hub U.S. pure gasoline value averaging $3.35 per MMBtu in 2025, $3.30 per MMBtu in 2026, and $2.90 per MMBtu in 2027.
In that report, Customary Chartered projected that the commodity will are available in at $3.50 per MMBtu throughout the second and third quarters of this yr, $3.20 per MMBtu throughout the fourth quarter of 2025 and first quarter of 2026, $3.70 per MMBtu within the second quarter of subsequent yr, and $3.50 per MMBtu within the third quarter of 2026.
A analysis observe despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis staff on Might 3 confirmed that J.P. Morgan anticipated the U.S. pure gasoline Henry Hub value to common $3.80 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.31 per MMBtu in 2026.
The U.S. Vitality Info Administration (EIA) elevated its Henry Hub pure gasoline spot value forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its newest quick time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched on April 10.
In response to its April STEO, the EIA now sees the Henry Hub spot value averaging $4.27 per MMBtu in 2025 and $4.60 per MMBtu in 2026. In its earlier STEO, which was launched in March, the EIA noticed the Henry Hub spot value averaging $4.19 per MMBtu in 2025 and $4.47 per MMBtu in 2026.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
