In a report despatched to Rigzone by the Morningstar staff this week, Morningstar analysts mentioned they consider oil demand “nonetheless has 5 to 10 years of respectable progress earlier than plateauing within the early 2030s”.
“Demand doesn’t begin declining till the late 2030s,” the analysts mentioned within the report, which is titled The Way forward for Oil to 2050.
“We undertaking oil demand to develop from 104 million barrels per day in 2024 to a peak of 108 million barrels per day in 2032, then decline to 96 million barrels per day in 2050,” they added.
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The analysts highlighted within the report that the 2050 projection represents a cumulative eight % drop versus 2024, “or 0.3 % yearly”.
The Morningstar analysts said within the report that, on account of their demand outlook, they’ve just lately upgraded their midcycle oil value to $65 per barrel from $60.
“Over 2025 to 2034, they count on Brent oil costs to common $65 per barrel in inflation-adjusted phrases,” the analysts mentioned within the report.
“That is near the present Brent value at $63 as of November 2025, and a bit beneath the 2015-24 common actual Brent value of $76,” they added.
“We use this 10-year common by means of 2034 as our midcycle value. By the 2040s, we undertaking oil costs to surge over $100 per barrel in actual phrases,” they continued.
Morningstar analysts highlighted that The Way forward for Oil to 2050 report is an replace to the corporate’s 2021 report, The Way forward for Oil Demand.
“Our bullish thesis on oil demand stays basically unchanged from that earlier report,” the analysts added.
“New on this 12 months’s report is a value forecast by means of 2050, derived by combining our in-house demand view with Rystad’s supply-side projections,” they added.
The analysts identified within the report that Morningstar’s methodology features a “bottom-up forecast that splits oil demand into 10 sectors”.
“Every sector has distinctive drivers. Just some sectors are susceptible to the substitute of oil demand by electrification,” they mentioned within the report.
In a J.P. Morgan analysis word despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis staff on November 14, J.P. Morgan analysts outlined that, month to this point by means of November 12, international oil demand averaged 105 million barrels per day.
The analysts identified within the word that this marked a 12 months over 12 months improve of 460,000 barrels per day and was 20,000 barrels per day beneath their forecasted month-to-month progress of 480,000 barrels per day.
“Yr to this point, demand has risen by 0.85 million barrels per day, falling in need of our projected progress of 0.9 million barrels per day by 50,000 barrels per day,” the J.P. Morgan analysts mentioned within the word.
“International oil demand confirmed a modest enchancment through the interval from November 5 by means of 12, buoyed by a rebound in U.S. gasoline consumption and elevated port exercise at Los Angeles,” they added.
“Chinese language trucking and cargo loading additionally strengthened, with cargo volumes rising by 4 % from year-ago ranges by means of November 9 after experiencing a short slowdown on the finish of October,” they continued.
“Whereas the U.S. noticed reductions in flight exercise, international flights continued to develop, posting a 4 % 12 months over 12 months improve by means of November 9,” the J.P. Morgan analysts went on to state.
Morningstar describes itself on its web site as a number one supplier of unbiased funding insights in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The corporate “gives an intensive line of services and products for particular person buyers, monetary advisors, asset managers and house owners, retirement plan suppliers and sponsors, institutional buyers within the debt and personal capital markets, and alliances and redistributors”, Morningstar notes on its web site.
On its web site, J.P. Morgan describes itself as a number one international monetary companies agency with belongings of $3.9 trillion and operations worldwide. The corporate has “a legacy courting again to 1799”, its web site factors out.
To contact the creator, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
