In a report despatched to Rigzone by the Commonplace Chartered crew on Wednesday, Commonplace Chartered Financial institution Power Analysis Head Emily Ashford revealed the “market consensus” for the result of the following OPEC+ assembly, which is at present scheduled to happen on Sunday.
“OPEC+ members meet just about on February 1, with market consensus that the assembly will possible mirror January’s in each pace and final result (fast, with no coverage change),” Ashford stated within the publication.
Ashford famous within the report that OPEC+’s month-to-month conferences “permit the group to be extremely reactive and nimble in response to market circumstances and sentiment”.
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“We now have seen notable enhancements within the ahead curve over the previous month,” Ashford stated.
“Backwardation on the entrance of the ahead curve extends out by way of the 2026 contracts, whereas one month in the past it was solely the primary three months, and the again of the curve has risen by $1 per barrel month on month,” the analyst added.
“As well as, market sentiment seems to be progressively turning away from the overwhelmingly bearish ‘provide glut’ narrative that has dominated media reporting since This fall-2025,” Ashford continued.
“Nevertheless, we don’t anticipate a pivot in technique at this assembly and Q1 loadings stay paused,” the Commonplace Chartered analyst went on to state.
The Commonplace Chartered Financial institution analyst projected within the report that “consideration is extra more likely to fall on the OPEC+ overproducers’ up to date compensation plans”.
“Each Iraq and Kazakhstan have notable volumes to take away from their provide,” Ashford highlighted.
“Kazakhstan’s compensation plan for January was 279,000 barrels per day, rising to 569,000 barrels per day for each February and March,” Ashford identified.
Rigzone has contacted OPEC for touch upon the Commonplace Chartered report. On the time of writing, OPEC has not responded to Rigzone.
In a market replace despatched to Rigzone by the Rystad Power crew on Monday, Rystad highlighted that oil merchants “will monitor … indicators from OPEC+ members”.
An announcement posted on OPEC’s web site on January 4 revealed that, in a gathering held that day, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman “reaffirmed their determination on 2 November 2025 to pause manufacturing increments in February and March 2026 on account of seasonality”.
In keeping with a desk accompanying that assertion, “required manufacturing” in February and March this yr is 10.103 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.574 million barrels per day for Russia, 4.273 million barrels per day for Iraq, 3.411 million barrels per day for the UAE, 2.580 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 1.569 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 971,000 barrels per day for Algeria, and 811,000 barrels per day for Oman.
The assertion went on to notice that the eight OPEC+ nations will maintain month-to-month conferences “to evaluation market circumstances, conformity, and compensation”, including that the eight nations will meet on February 1.
An announcement posted on OPEC’s web site on January 7 introduced that the OPEC Secretariat had obtained up to date compensation plans from Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kazakhstan, and Oman.
A desk accompanying this assertion confirmed that these compensation plans quantity to a complete of 267,000 barrels per day in December 2025, 415,000 barrels per day in January 2026, 708,000 barrels per day in February, 710,000 barrels per day in March, 810,000 barrels per day in April, 831,000 barrels per day in Could, and 829,000 barrels per day in June.
In keeping with the desk, Kazakhstan’s compensation plans are available at 131,000 barrels per day in December, 279,000 barrels per day in January, 569,000 barrels per day in each February and March, 650,000 barrels per day in April, and 669,000 barrels per day in each Could and June.
Iraq’s compensation plans quantity to 120,000 barrels per day in each December 2025 and January 2026, 115,000 barrels per day in each February and March, 101,000 barrels per day in April, and 100,000 barrels per day in each Could and June, the desk confirmed.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
