In an EBW Analytics Group report despatched to Rigzone by the EBW workforce on Friday, Eli Rubin, an vitality analyst on the firm, highlighted an “implosion over the previous week” within the July pure gasoline contract.
“The July pure gasoline contract rolled off the board at $3.261 yesterday – a 72.8¢ (-18 %) implosion over the previous week as the warmth wave did not sufficiently carry bodily money costs at Henry Hub,” Rubin mentioned within the report.
“Yesterday’s 96 billion cubic foot bearish Power Data Administration (EIA) injection, whereas largely a make-up for final week’s bullish shock, additional weighed on costs,” Rubin added.
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In its newest weekly pure gasoline storage report, which was launched on Thursday, the EIA acknowledged that working gasoline in storage was 2,898 billion cubic toes as of Friday, June 20, 2025, in keeping with EIA estimates.
“This represents a web improve of 96 billion cubic toes from the earlier week. Shares had been 196 billion cubic toes lower than final yr presently and 179 billion cubic toes above the five-year common of two,719 billion cubic toes,” the EIA mentioned in its report.
“At 2,898 billion cubic toes, complete working gasoline is throughout the five-year historic vary,” the EIA added.
Within the EBW Analytics Group report, Rubin acknowledged that the early to mid July climate outlook is warming and LNG demand is firming and highlighted that “each can develop additional in a bullish path over the subsequent few weeks”.
“Provide readings could churn greater close to time period, although, amid intramonth nomination patterns and concluding upkeep – probably subduing upside into early subsequent week,” Rubin mentioned within the report.
Rubin additionally identified within the report that, “technically, the August contract appeared to seek out assist yesterday, bouncing 12¢ off intraday lows at $3.403”. He highlighted within the report that the August pure gasoline contract “is testing greater this morning”.
“A brief-term technical rebound could lengthen within the quick time period however could require firming LNG and constructing summer time warmth to sustainably lengthen greater,” he went on to state.
In an EBW Analytics Group report despatched to Rigzone by the EBW workforce on Thursday, Rubin famous that pure gasoline “proceed[d]… to droop forward of July remaining settlement”.
“The July pure gasoline contract slumped into choices expiry yesterday, closing down 58¢ off Thursday’s excessive as offtakers give attention to continued mushy bodily market realizations,” he mentioned.
“Henry Hub spot costs cleared above $3.50 per million British thermal items (MMBtu) solely as soon as up to now two months throughout sweltering late-June warmth – suggesting danger is to the draw back,” Rubin added.
“July remaining settlement right now poses volatility dangers on the entrance of the curve. Continued LNG inconsistency, hints of rising manufacturing, and a scarcity of hotter climate are placing up little resistance to the evaporating bullish momentum,” he went on to state.
“The seasonal storage trajectory stays on a path in direction of 3,850 Bcf within the most-likely state of affairs, suggesting present pricing is hardly unreasonable,” he continued.
In that report, Rubin famous that, in EBW’s view, “one other eventual warmth wave into midsummer and stabilizing LNG could drive greater gasoline costs over the subsequent 30-45 days earlier than relapsing in late summer time or early autumn”.
The EIA’s newest quick time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched on June 10, projected that the Henry Hub spot value will common $4.02 per MMBtu in 2025 and $4.88 per MMBtu in 2026.
That STEO forecast that the commodity would are available at $3.26 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.01 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $4.67 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $5.35 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2026, $4.39 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.87 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.92 MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
To contact the creator, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
