Focus on the London Worldwide Power Week (IEW) final week was the balancing of geopolitics versus assessed surplus of oil globally in 2026.
That’s what Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop famous in a SEB report despatched to Rigzone on Monday morning, including that one delegate on the occasion acknowledged that “if OPEC doesn’t reduce, we’ll have $45 per barrel in June”.
“That could be true,” Schieldrop mentioned within the report.
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“However OPEC+ is assembly each month, taking a measure of the state of the worldwide oil market after which decides what to do on the again of that. The group has been very specific that they could reduce, improve, or preserve manufacturing regular relying on their findings,” he added.
“We consider they may and thus we don’t purchase into $45 per barrel by June as a result of, if need-be, they may trim manufacturing as they are saying they may,” he continued, declaring that OPEC+ is subsequent scheduled to fulfill on March 1 “to debate manufacturing for April”.
Schieldrop highlighted within the report that, in its February oil market report, the Worldwide Power Company (IEA) “restated its view that the world will solely want 25.7 million barrels per day of crude from OPEC in 2026 versus a latest manufacturing by the group of 28.8 million barrels per day”.
“I.e. that to maintain the market balanced the group might want to reduce manufacturing by some three million barrels per day,” he mentioned.
“Although strategic inventory constructing around the globe must be deducted from that. And the urge for food for such inventory constructing could possibly be strong given elevated geopolitical dangers. Thus what’s going to circulate to business shares ultimately stays to be seen,” he acknowledged.
Schieldrop went on to notice within the report that elevated Iranian stress might drive Brent to $80 per barrel and mentioned fading stress would drop it again to $60 per barrel.
IEW, which was hosted by the Power Institute, befell from February 10-12 on the QEII Heart in London, UK. The occasion’s web site describes IEW because the UK’s “flagship power occasion” and as “greater than only a convention”.
“It’s a convening pressure, a networking hub and a strategic instrument within the Power Institute’s mission to create a greater power future,” the location states.
The IEW web site notes that Worldwide Power Week 2026 “is the primary main world power occasion following COP30, the place the world’s power leaders collect to show local weather commitments into motion”.
“Backed by the Power Institute and its 20,000 sturdy membership, Worldwide Power Week affords a novel platform to sort out essentially the most pressing challenges in power: from grid resilience and provide chain threat, to financing the transition and scaling innovation,” it provides.
Audio system at this 12 months’s IEW occasion included Shell CEO Wael Sawan, Vitol CEO Russell Hardy, and CNOOC Group Deputy Chief Economist Wang Zhen, the IEW web site highlights.
In a report despatched to Rigzone by the Customary Chartered workforce final week, Emily Ashford, Power Analysis Head at Customary Chartered Financial institution, highlighted that merchants and analysts had been assembly in London that week for IEW, which the power head mentioned “is at all times a helpful gauge of market sentiment”.
“Final 12 months the main focus was across the new second Trump administration, and whether or not it could be inherently bullish or bearish for oil costs,” Ashford famous.
“This was notably so given the signing of a Nationwide Safety Presidential Memorandum in early February 2025 that restored most strain on Iran, with a give attention to decreasing its crude exports,” Ashford mentioned.
“One 12 months later, and the complicated U.S.-Iran relationship and potential impression on Iranian barrels available in the market stays entrance and middle,” Ashford continued.
To contact the creator, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
