The U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) is forecasting that whole U.S. crude oil manufacturing, together with lease condensate, will drop from 2026 to 2027 in its newest quick time period power outlook (STEO), which was launched earlier this month.
In accordance with its February STEO, the EIA sees U.S. oil output averaging 13.60 million barrels per day this 12 months and 13.32 million barrels per day subsequent 12 months. U.S. crude oil manufacturing, together with lease condensate, got here in at 13.60 million barrels per day in 2025, the STEO highlighted.
In its earlier STEO, which was launched in January and was the primary STEO to supply manufacturing predictions for 2027, the EIA noticed whole U.S. crude oil manufacturing, together with lease condensate, dropping from 13.61 million barrels per day in 2025 to 13.59 million barrels per day in 2026 and 13.25 million barrels per day in 2027.
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The EIA is projecting in its newest STEO that Decrease 48 States, excluding the Gulf of America, will produce 11.15 million barrels per day of the 2026 whole, and that the Federal Gulf of America and Alaska will produce 1.98 million barrels per day and 0.47 million barrels per day, respectively, of this 12 months’s whole determine.
This STEO forecasts that, in 2027, Decrease 48 States, excluding the Gulf of America, will produce 10.96 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of America will produce 1.87 million barrels per day, and Alaska will produce 0.50 million barrels per day.
In 2025, Decrease 48 States, excluding the Gulf of America, produced 11.28 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of America produced 1.90 million barrels per day, and Alaska produced 0.42 million barrels per day, the EIA’s February STEO confirmed.
A knowledge web page on the EIA web site displaying month-to-month U.S. area manufacturing of crude oil – which was final up to date on February 6, 2026, and consists of knowledge from January 1920 to November 2025 – confirmed that month-to-month U.S. area manufacturing of crude oil averaged 13.864 million barrels per day in October final 12 months.
This determine is the very best within the knowledge set, with the second highest determine coming in September 2025, at 13.828 million barrels per day, and the third highest determine coming in August 2025, at 13.810 million barrels per day.
Month-to-month U.S. area manufacturing of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day or extra on 26 events, in accordance with the information web page. Eleven of those had been seen in 2025, one other 11 got here in 2024, and 4 got here in 2023, the information web page highlighted.
A knowledge web page on the EIA website displaying annual U.S. area manufacturing of crude oil – which was additionally final up to date on February 6, 2026, and which incorporates knowledge from 1859 to 2024 – confirmed that annual U.S. area manufacturing of crude oil averaged 13.235 million barrels per day in 2024. Previous to this, annual U.S. area manufacturing of crude oil had by no means averaged 13 million barrels per day or extra, the information revealed. The closest it got here to an annual common of 13 million barrels per day was in 2023, at 12.943 million barrels per day, the information confirmed.
In its STEO, the EIA describes itself because the statistical and analytical company inside the U.S. Division of Vitality. The EIA states in its STEO that, “by legislation”, its “knowledge, analyses, and forecasts are unbiased of approval by some other officer or worker of the U.S. Authorities” and added that “the views on this report don’t signify these of DOE or some other federal companies”.
The EIA notes on its web site that it collects, analyzes, and disseminates unbiased and neutral power info to advertise sound policymaking, environment friendly markets, and public understanding of power and its interplay with the financial system and the surroundings.
To contact the writer, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
