Prediction markets now put the chance of the U.S. placing Iran earlier than June this 12 months at 71 p.c.
That’s what Erik Meyersson, Chief EM Strategist at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), mentioned in a report despatched to Rigzone by the SEB staff on Friday.
“Brent crude futures rose above $70 per barrel yesterday (it now stands at $69.8), indicative of a considerable threat premium,” he famous.
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Within the report, Meyersson warned that “one other warfare together with a naval intervention might deliver better dangers of an occasion within the Strait of Hormuz”.
“Given the constraints to [a] direct U.S. army strike, a probable situation is that the U.S. seeks to start out with a naval intervention to intercede Iran’s shadow fleet and sanctioned oil exports,” he mentioned.
“This additionally implies a better likelihood of a threat occasion involving the Strait of Hormuz than final 12 months’s warfare,” he warned.
“The Polymarket estimate of the chance that Iran might try to shut the Strait is 31 p.c, in comparison with 24 p.c on June eleventh final 12 months. The oil VIX index is at 55.4 p.c, in comparison with 43.2 p.c final 12 months,” he added.
“Even the Brent oil value is now on par with the extent prevailing simply earlier than the June warfare, regardless of ranging from a decrease baseline,” Meyersson continued.
“The Brent futures curve has seen a bigger shift upwards relative to the interval previous final 12 months’s warfare. That is the case for each the front-month and 12-year contract,” he went on to state.
In a Rystad Power market replace despatched to Rigzone simply earlier than 3pm GMT time on January 29, Rystad famous that oil costs had “risen sharply to $71.50 per barrel over the previous few hours, their highest degree since late September 2025, pushed by mounting market hypothesis of an imminent U.S. army strike on Iran”.
In that replace, Jorge Leon, Rystad Power Senior Vice President and Head of Geopolitical Evaluation, mentioned, “oil markets are quickly repricing geopolitical threat because the chance of direct U.S. motion in opposition to Iran rises”.
“The velocity of the oil value response suggests markets see U.S. army motion in opposition to Iran as an actual, near-term threat,” he added.
“Whereas climate disruptions play a job, the magnitude of the worth transfer factors to a renewed geopolitical threat premium,” Leon warned.
In a J.P. Morgan report despatched to Rigzone on Thursday by Natasha Kaneva, the corporate’s head of worldwide commodities technique, J.P. Morgan analysts, together with Kaneva, highlighted that gold “surged previous $5,550/oz to a brand new all-time excessive, whereas oil climbed in direction of $70, a four-month peak, as escalating tensions over Iran injected contemporary uncertainty into markets”.
The analysts warned in that report that “any potential strike or blockade of Iran would come at a very difficult time”.
“Traditionally, the primary quarter is usually the weakest interval of the 12 months for international oil supply-demand balances, marked by seasonal demand softness and the biggest stock builds of the 12 months,” the analysts added.
“Nonetheless, this January proved to be something however typical,” the analysts continued.
Within the report, the J.P. Morgan analysts highlighted {that a} “huge winter storm and freezing temperatures in components of the U.S. took 1.85-1.9 million barrels per day of manufacturing offline on the peak on January 26, marking essentially the most extreme weather-related disruption in a number of years”.
“Amid the intense chilly, U.S. oil demand surged by 0.5 million barrels per day, primarily as a consequence of elevated energy era and heating wants,” the analysts mentioned.
“Combining provide losses and demand energy, web market tightening within the U.S. oil steadiness peaked at 2.4 million barrels per day at the beginning of the week,” they went on to spotlight.
Rigzone has contacted the White Home and the Iranian Ministry of Overseas Affairs for touch upon the SEB report, the J.P. Morgan report, and the Rystad replace. On the time of writing, neither have responded to Rigzone.
To contact the writer, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
